EUR/USD Struggles to Maintain Daily PivotEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDNouzTraderEUR/USD struggled to maintain the psychological level of 1.1400 throughout Wednesday's Asian trading session. Liquidity contracted sideways due to extreme caution among institutional market players ahead of the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes tonight, amidst the turmoil of a new kinetic war in the Middle East. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Monetary Side: Bond Yields Surge Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes The resurgence of the specter of energy commodity inflation undermined the effects of last week's 57,000-year NFP slowdown, triggering a massive sell-off in the US bond market that directly impacted the Euro: - 🔸Exploding US Treasury Yields: The 10-year US bond yield shot up to 4.567%, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield crept up to 4.189%. This surge in yields was the main fuel strengthening the Greenback's appeal. - 🔸Expectations for Fed Minutes Tonight (Thursday, 1:00 a.m. WIB): Market focus is locked on the release of the FOMC Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting. Investors are searching for written evidence of the depth of the higher-for-longer high-interest rate doctrine instilled by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. - 🔸The market currently rates an above-80 % probability that the Fed will execute at least one further interest rate hike (+25 bps) before the close of 2026. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Technical Analysis 4-Hour Chart (H4) Technically, on the 4-hour chart (H4), EUR/USD is on the brink of a critical point, where failure to maintain the daily pivot would confirm the continuation of the macro downtrend: - 🔸The 1.1400 level: This level acts as a daily pivot that determines sentiment. If the Euro fails to capture post-news buying volume and closes below 1.1400 tonight, the technical picture will be reconfirmed as a full bearish continuation. Any attempt at a pure daily recovery is seen as a Sell on Rally opportunity. - 🔸Hawkish/Hard Minutes Scenario (EUR/USD Landslide): If the minutes confirm that a majority of Fed board members support Warsh's aggressive pursuit of the 2% inflation target, the dollar will explode. The euro is projected to immediately fall through 1.1365 towards the current year's trough of 1.1325-1.1330. - 🔸Dovish/Moderate Minutes Scenario (EUR/USD Float): If the minutes detect internal concerns among Fed officials about slowing employment, the euro will trigger massive short-covering and surge back to test 1.1475.