Crack spread and crude oil price(2*RB1!*42+HO1!*42-3*CL1!)/3(2*NYMEX_DL:RB1!*42+NYMEX_DL:HO1!*42-3*NYMEX_DL:CL1!)/3PoPnoStyleHistorically, we have seen crack spreads drop without a recession in two specific ways: The "Supply Shock" Reversal: If geopolitical bottlenecks ease—such as a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz tensions that heavily impacted 2026 energy markets—or if sanctioned Russian/Iranian products flow more efficiently via secondary markets, product supply surges. The Crude-Led Squeeze: Ironically, if crude oil prices skyrocket too fast due to tight upstream supply (e.g., OPEC+ cuts), refiners often cannot pass the cost onto consumers quickly enough. This causes the crack spread to collapse because crude rises faster than gasoline/diesel, leading to negative margins without a drop in fuel consumption. The Demand Destruct Scenario Your thesis focuses on a demand-driven collapse. If crack spreads drop because consumers stop buying gasoline and factories stop using diesel, that is an unmitigated recessionary signal. When a recession hits, absolute crude prices drop, but product prices drop faster, crushing the crack spread. This forces the central bank into emergency mode, cutting interest rates to save the economy. As real yields plunge during those rate cuts, gold typically enters a massive secular bull market.