Dow Jones Index (US 30) – Can the Uptrend Continue?US Wall Street 30 IndexPEPPERSTONE:US30PepperstoneThe Dow Jones Index (US 30) has been on an impressive run of late, trading from a low of 49762 on June 11th all the way up to a register a new all time high of 53224 this morning, that’s a gain of 7%. Rotation has been a big part of the story, as traders look to move out of high valuation AI stocks back into potentially safer, cash rich blue chip US corporates. A more settled geo-political backdrop in the Middle East has been another factor, although the truce between US-Iran remains fragile meaning traders may need to pay attention to reports such as those out earlier today of Iranian missile strikes on 2 commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg), or updates on when the next round of peace talks to bring an official end to the conflict may begin, just in case they increase index price volatility. While Friday’s weaker US jobs report saw market expectations of a Fed interest rate hike at the end of July drop to around a 20% chance (Bloomberg), sensitivity remains regarding the differing views of Fed policymakers toward inflation and the potential need for rate hikes later in the year. Looking forward on the event front, tomorrow’s release at 1900 BST of the minutes from the June Fed meeting could bring some clarity to this situation but could also generate some index moving headlines, so staying alert and apprised of the technical backdrop could be a prudent approach. Technical Update: Can the Uptrend Continue? It could be suggested that Friday’s price activity in the Dow Jones Index (US 30) reflected trader indecision over whether recent price strength can extend without a correction developing first. This was highlighted by a neutral Doji pattern within candlestick analysis, where Friday’s session opened and closed at the same level, leaving a daily candle with no real body, as can be seen on the main chart. A reason for this indecision may have been the run‑up to the July 4th holiday, meaning the early price action this week could reveal whether the uncertainty is meaningful or simply a short‑term pause in what has already been a strong advance. With this in mind, it could be useful to monitor key support and resistance levels to assess where directional risks may emerge into Friday’s close. Potential Support Levels: If trader uncertainty develops into further price weakness, the initial focus could turn to the 52450 level which is equal to half of the latest price strength. Closing breaks below 52450, if seen, could then lead to further declines. Breaks below 52450 could trigger a deeper retracement of the June 11th to July 3rd advance, with scope toward 51912, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and, if that were also to give way on a closing basis, possibly even 51506, the deeper 50% level. Potential Resistance Levels: As the chart below shows, an uptrend condition which is a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows, does currently remain in place. So, while support at 52450 continues to hold on a closing basis, it may indicate that last Friday’s indecision is not an important development, opening the way towards further price strength. If this is the case, closing breaks above the latest all time high of 53224 (July 7th) could develop. If seen, this may increase the risks of further upside momentum to test 54016, which is equal to the 61.8% extension and, if that were also to give way, 56179, which is the higher 100% extension. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.