Walmart (WMT) LONG — 12H ALMA Setup (WR 72%)Walmart Inc.BATS:WMTGoldfinch_song█ SETUP Walmart · WMT · 12H · long only. ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/1, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry. Strategy Tester (WMT 12H): Win rate 72% · profit factor 2.3 · max drawdown 18% Avg winning trade +5.3% · avg losing trade −4.6% Typical hold ~30×12H bars on winners · defensive retail mean-reversion ═ █ WHY NOW Post-Jul 4 US cash reopen — 12H ALMA refill on 6 Jul 13:30 UTC ~$111.72. Second lot on the same high-sample template (first entry 2 Jul) — defensive retail on a pullback, not a headline trade. Mark since refill ~$109.52 (−1.9% day-one) — post-holiday discount after the Jul 4 gap. Hard stop zone −10% from working average on the refill lot. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. █ MACRO Sector: WMT = US mega-cap defensive retail — consumer staples beta, not Mag7 AI. Traffic, margins, and wage headlines move the name; execution is 12H ALMA, not an earnings call. Tape (6 Jul): First full US session after Jul 4 — investors reach for staples when index leadership wobbles. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - 72% WR · PF 2.3 · avg win +5.3% vs avg loss −4.6% — tight payoff on a deep-sample 12H template - EMA — overheated below (fuel): 1D Cur S:30 vs Avg S:4.4 · +7.5% dev — time below daily EMA far exceeds norm - EMA — overheated below (fuel): 4H Cur S:59 vs Avg S:5.4 · +6.5% dev — stretched below-session on the execution ladder - EMA — overheated below (fuel): 3D Cur S:10 vs Avg S:4.6 · +10.2% dev — multi-day below-EMA stretch supports mean-reversion - ALMA — SHORT board at stretch: 1D Cur S:7 vs SAvg 3.2 OVERHEAT-S · 4H SHORT at the band (S:1) — price pressed below ALMA long enough for a refill, not a fresh breakdown - RSI: daily 9-period oversold into the refill — aligns with discount entry - Spread: pair extreme negative on the 1D board — relative-value discount vs the retail tape at fill - SMC — 1W: In FVG Bull + OB Enter Normal Bull on the 29 Jun weekly bar (~$111.84) — slow-TF demand pocket under the refill zone - SMC — 1D: OB Enter Breaker Bull on the 2 Jul daily bar at ~$111.84 — bid-side structure tags the holiday down-sweep Negative factors - EMA — young below: 1H Cur S:3 vs Avg S:12.2 · +1.9% dev — below-session not yet overstretched on the fast chart; bounce can mature lower before the 12H band works - SMC — 4H bear churn at entry: In FVG Bear + OB Breaker Bull at ~$111.72 on the refill bar — price opened inside bear inefficiency on the execution ladder - Price action: new daily bear FVG formed 6 Jul — overhead supply added after the holiday sweep - Correlated US retail beta — one headline open can gap the 12H bar - Past backtest ≠ live fills on $100+ prints Takeaway: the 12H ALMA setup, below-EMA / below-ALMA time-stretch, RSI oversold, and spread discount support the defensive refill, but 1H young below-session and 4H bear FVG churn cap the first bounce — nominal risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path. Base case: 12H ALMA holds the ~$111 cluster · below-EMA stretch resolves · slow grind back toward the holiday fair-value zone if staples stay bid post-Jul 4. Bear case: lose 12H ALMA on risk-off · 1H young below extends · −10% from the refill working average.