S&P 500 hits 7,500: The number that silenced the hawks!US SPX 500 CashBLUEBERRY:SP500Kearabilwe-NonyanaS&P 500 has rebounded from its Independence Day holiday having produced the best quarter performance since 2020. The S&P 500 is up by 9.6% for the first half of 2026, the macro environment remains quite confusing coming into the second half of the year. The dovish Fed in June has created the right rate environment for the equity market bulls, and good NFP data on July 3rd confirmed that the US economy is not collapsing. However, the NFP report of June was much more concerning for the equity bulls, as non-farm payrolls growth of only 57K was significantly below expectations of 117K, and previous months’ data have been substantially revised lower.. The daily price depicts this indecision in detail. What the chart is really depicting is an index that has experienced a very powerful rebound off its lows of April 2026 Liberation Day and subsequently moved into a six-week consolidation just below its all-time high after making a very steep rise during May neither breaking down convincingly nor breaking out to new highs. The EMA configuration is technically still valid. The EMA 9 at 6,524 and the EMA 20 at 6,606 are both moving up and still sitting well under the current price level, thereby maintaining its bullish technical setup despite the lack of momentum in the short term. The MA Cross between the 9 and 21 is respectively another fairly wide distance from the current price, thereby indicating that the trend is undeniably not broken but only consolidating. The RSI of 55.96 is clearly the best representation of what is happening right now.. It is just above the 50 mark, while its signal line is at 51.58, meaning there is buying interest, but there is not enough conviction in it. If an index is trading at 98.5% of its historical highs and the RSI does not show much strength beyond mid-50s, then this means that those buyers who want to drive prices higher have not shown up yet. The MACD is probably the most conservative indicator in this regard. The MACD line at −6.49 is below the signal line at −93.77, while the histogram is at −87.28, indicating a bearish setup that has persisted since late-May highs and has not changed significantly. While the histogram bars have gotten smaller, meaning that the trend is moving closer towards reversal, they are still red and have not crossed back into the positive territory. This means that technically the market is in consolidation in a downward momentum environment. Trade recommendation Direction: Long Entry horizon: 7,350 – 7,440 Primary target: 7,621 Secondary target: 7,800 Stop loss: 6,956 Technical scenarios All-time high breakout: The MACD histogram shifts from red to green, confirming lateJune's AI selloff was a shakeout. Backed by strong weekend sales from Foxconn and a 62% prediction market probability for an upward open, a Q2 beat-and-raise cycle kicked off by Samsung on Tuesday;could push the RSI above 60. Reclaiming the 7,621 all-time high on a daily close would trigger momentum flows toward JPMorgan's 7,800 target. Range extension: The index remains stuck between 7,350 and 7,621, continuing its six-week consolidation. With the MACD near zero, the RSI between 50 and 60, and the AI sector rotating between rallies and profit-taking, the market is pausing. This neutral environment reflects a market waiting for Q2 earnings to provide a decisive direction. BofA snapback: Bank of America's warning of speculative excess and a 7,100 year-end target materializes if Q2 earnings disappoint. This downside scenario risks a 13% correction from the all-time high, pushing the MACD toward June lows, dropping the RSI below 50, and testing the 6,510–6,634 MA Cross zone. The EMA 200 near 6,956 serves as the final structural defense for the long-term trend.