Aurinia (AUPH) LONG — 1W VWAP Setup (WR 70%)Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.BATS:AUPHGoldfinch_song█ SETUP Aurinia Pharmaceuticals · NASDAQ:AUPH · 1W · long only. VWAP Swing Strategy: swing pivot per chart · 2 consecutive bars per deploy · 0/6 min VWAP age on entry/exit. One full position per signal — no scale-in ladder. No hard % stop — long entry on Touch VWAP Low, exit on Touch VWAP High (active Resistance) when min-age met. Strategy Tester (AUPH 1W): Win rate 70% · profit factor 4.0 · max drawdown 27% Avg winning trade +13.8% · avg losing trade −7.8% Typical hold ~6×1W bars · biotech VWAP swing █ WHY NOW Post-Jul 4 US bell — weekly VWAP Swing long on 6 Jul 13:30 UTC ~$15.61. Fresh single full entry on the VWAP template — not a refill, not an FDA headline trade. Mark since entry ~$15.86 (+1.7% day-one). No fixed −10% stop on this VWAP setup. Exit when price tags the next active swing-VWAP Resistance on the weekly chart — min-age gates stay on-script. ═ █ MACRO Sector: AUPH = small-cap biotech — Lupus / rare-disease commercial story; equity trades on trial readouts, label momentum, and risk appetite for SMID health care. Tape (6 Jul): US cash reopened after Jul 4 while crypto headlines dominated the feed — SMID biotech can move on bar-close VWAP signals without a fresh FDA print. Execution is 1W VWAP Swing, not a catalyst forecast. ═ █ OUTLOOK Positive factors - 70% WR · PF 4.0 · avg win +13.8% vs avg loss −7.8% — favorable skew on weekly swings - EMA — overheated below (fuel): 1H Cur S:17 vs Avg S:7.3 · +1.5% dev — stretched below-session on the hourly chart into the weekly VWAP touch - ALMA — SHORT at stretch: 1D Cur S:7 vs SAvg 2.8 OVERHEAT-S — time below daily ALMA exceeds norm; mean-reversion fuel at fill - ALMA — 4H long at band: 4H LONG · L:1 vs LAvg 3.5 — young above-session on the swing ladder - SMC — 1D: MS Dnsweep + FVG Enter Bull at ~$15.61 on the 2 Jul daily bar — demand tagged at fill Negative factors - EMA — overheated above: 1W Cur L:53 vs Avg L:9.3 · −11.9% dev — time above weekly EMA ~5.7× norm; shakeout risk before the next Resistance tag - EMA — overheated above: 3D Cur L:22 vs Avg L:7.0 · −1.1% dev — extended above-session by time even with price back at the 3D EMA - EMA — young below: 4H Cur S:5 vs Avg S:8.1 · +3.7% dev — below-session not yet overstretched on the 4h chart - ALMA — 1H overheat above: 1H LONG · L:6 vs LAvg 3.7 OVERHEAT-L — fast-TF long stretch into the weekly entry, not a deep discount tag - ALMA — 1W still SHORT: weekly board SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg 3.1 — slow band not reclaimed - Price action: new daily bear FVG formed 6 Jul — overhead supply on the biotech tape - Biotech gap risk on 1W bars — headline slippage on SMID names Takeaway: weekly VWAP stats, below-EMA / below-ALMA stretch on 1H–1D, and bull FVG / dnsweep at fill support the long, but 1W/3D time-overheat above, 4H young below, daily bear OB, and 1H ALMA overheat cap the bounce — script exit stays the next Resistance touch, not a fixed % stop. Base case: weekly VWAP band holds · below-EMA stretch on 1H–1D resolves · work toward overhead swing-VWAP Resistance if SMID health care stays bid. Bear case: fail daily bear OB · lose weekly bull FVG · 1W time-overheat unwinds before Resistance tags.