Bahri (4030): Strong FundamentalsNational Shipping Co. of Saudi ArabiaTADAWUL:4030FaisalKSAAfter reviewing Bahri’s FY2025 results and Q1 2026 performance, I believe the company remains fundamentally strong despite the market’s cautious pricing. Key Highlights * Revenue continues to benefit from a resilient tanker market. * EBITDA remains at healthy levels, reflecting strong operating performance. * Net debt is manageable relative to cash generation. * Free cash flow has improved significantly following the major fleet investment cycle. * The balance sheet remains solid, giving the company flexibility for future growth and shareholder returns. Valuation At the current market price of SAR 32, Bahri appears to be trading below my estimated intrinsic value. Estimated Fair Value (Base Case): SAR 40 * Bear Case: SAR 34 * Base Case: SAR 40 * Bull Case: SAR 47 This implies approximately 25% upside to my base-case valuation. Accumulation Strategy Rather than buying all at once, I prefer building a position gradually. * Strong Buy Zone: SAR 28.6–30.0 * Accumulation Zone: SAR 30.0–32.0 * Hold Zone: SAR 32.0–35.0 If fundamentals continue to improve, I would reassess the valuation accordingly. Investment Thesis Bahri is a cyclical shipping company, so future performance will largely depend on freight rates and global oil transportation demand. However, with a diversified fleet, improving cash generation, and a stronger financial position, the company appears well positioned to benefit if market conditions remain supportive.