Scientists believe crew interactions and psychological wellbeing will be critical to the success of future lunar missions.(Source: X/ @NASA)As Nasa prepares to establish a long-term human presence near the moon’s south pole through its Artemis programme, a new study suggests that the success of a future lunar base may depend on a surprisingly simple question: how many astronauts should live there at once?According to research published in the journal PLOS ONE, a crew of six astronauts supported by regular supply missions from Earth could offer the highest probability of success for a permanent moon base. In contrast, smaller crews and longer gaps between resupply missions may significantly increase risks and reduce productivity.The study was conducted by researchers at George Mason University in the US, who used computational simulations, known as agent-based models, to understand how astronauts might interact with one another and their environment during long-duration lunar missions.Unlike conventional AI systems that learn from data patterns, agent-based modelling is designed to simulate complex interactions and study how behaviours emerge in systems without a single cause-and-effect relationship.Testing situationsThe researchers tested multiple scenarios involving different crew sizes, mission durations, and supply schedules.Also Read | Why Nasa’s next alien-hunting super telescope will rely entirely on robots for fixesIn one initial scenario, astronauts stayed on the moon for three months and received one supply mission during that period. Simulations showed that the crew completed only about 20 per cent of their expected tasks, a figure the researchers considered acceptable in some industrial settings but potentially problematic for a high-stakes lunar mission.The study found that the most favourable scenario involved six astronauts living on the moon simultaneously, with fresh supplies arriving every two weeks and only limited environmental disruptions. This combination offered the highest likelihood of maintaining productivity and managing unexpected challenges.Story continues below this adThe least favourable scenario featured just four astronauts on the lunar surface, with only one resupply mission every month and moderate to high probabilities of adverse events such as radiation exposure or micrometeorite impacts.Optimal factorsThe findings highlight the unique challenges of living and working in what scientists call an isolated, confined and extreme environment. A moon base would represent one of the most complex examples of such an environment, combining human crews, robotic systems, and limited connections with Earth.Researchers say that psychological stress and team dynamics could play a major role in determining mission outcomes. According to the study, the interactions between crew members are as important as the capabilities of individual astronauts.They argue that simply increasing astronaut training may not be enough to address the challenges of long-duration lunar missions. Instead, mission planners should carefully optimise factors such as crew size, mission duration, supply schedules, and contingency plans for emergencies.Story continues below this adAlso Read | Nasa’s Swift boost mission begins as LINK spacecraft sets out to save observatoryThe study also examined lessons from other isolated environments, including Antarctic research stations, submarines and offshore oil rigs. Such environments, such as space missions, require people to operate in confined spaces with limited resources and restricted access to external support.Nasa already places significant emphasis on psychological preparation. Astronauts undergo years of training to help them manage stress, resolve conflicts and function effectively in teams. Yet the researchers argue that even highly trained crews remain vulnerable to the complexities of prolonged isolation.