BTC Daily Setup 2026-07-11Bitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTEastsideCryptoBTC/USDT is trading at 64,258 and has been climbing steadily within a clean 4H ascending channel since the low around 58,000. The 4H MACD has turned positive again after a period of consolidation (histogram: 96.91), while price is testing the upper boundary of the local range at 64,400-64,500. On the 1H chart, the trend remains intact, although momentum is fading (MACD below the signal line, -18.21). The 15M and 5M charts show fresh upside momentum emerging from the 64,000 level, supporting a short-term bullish outlook. As long as 64,000/63,850 holds, the intraday bias remains long toward 64,500 and 64,800, with the psychological 65,000 level acting as the next magnet. Within the broader weekly bear market, however, every long move should still be viewed as a countertrend trade with limited upside potential. Caution is warranted around the 65,000 resistance. ## Scenario 1 – Primary **Range High Breakout Toward 64,800/65,000** **Probability:** 56% As long as 64,000 holds, the bullish momentum on the 15M and 5M charts, combined with the reclaimed 4H MACD, is likely to push price above the 64,500 range high. A confirmed breakout could trigger short liquidations, driving price toward 64,800 and the psychological 65,000 level. **① Entry** Long on a retest of 64,100-64,200 or on a 5M candle close above 64,500. **② Trigger** A 1H candle close above 64,500 with strong volume, or successful support above 64,100 during a pullback. **Stop** Below 63,820 (beneath the 15M base and the 1H 50 EMA). **Targets** * **T1:** 64,500 * **T2:** 64,800 ✦ * **T3:** 65,000 ✦ **Invalidation:** A 1H candle close below 63,850 invalidates the bullish structure and activates Scenario 2 (pullback toward 63,200). --- ## Scenario 2 – Alternative **Fakeout at the Range High – Pullback to 63,200** **Probability:** 44% Within the context of the broader weekly bear market, the breakout fails at the 64,500 resistance while the bearish 1H MACD divergence plays out. A loss of 63,850 opens the way toward the strong downside magnet at 63,200. **① Entry** Short on a rejection between 64,400-64,500 or on a retest from below after a break beneath 63,850. **② Trigger** A 1H candle close below 63,850, or a clear 5M rejection at 64,500 accompanied by bearish momentum. **Stop** Above 64,620 (above the range high and the fakeout wick). **Targets** * **T1:** 63,850 * **T2:** 63,500 * **T3:** 63,200 **Invalidation:** A 1H candle close above 64,500 invalidates the short setup and shifts the outlook back to Scenario 1 (move toward 64,800/65,000). --- Probabilities are subjective technical assessments and not guarantees. Trade the confirmation, not the opinion. This is not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.