STEPHEN MARCHE2026年7月10日The rupture of the world order is going much better than expected.世界秩序的瓦解比预期要顺利得多。At first there was rage at America’s betrayal, when President Trump called for the annexation of Canada, threatened Greenland, imposed tariffs on its friends and began his campaign to undercut NATO, which continued at its latest meeting this week, in Ankara, Turkey. Now, a strange feeling is emerging in some of the countries that used to be known as America’s allies: Optimistic determination. There’s an established principle in chess that applies to geopolitics as well: “The threat is stronger than the execution.” The possibility of U.S. abandonment of the world order was terrifying. The reality turns out to be a new beginning.起初，人们对美国的背叛感到愤怒——特朗普总统呼吁吞并加拿大、威胁格陵兰岛、对盟友征收关税，并开始削弱北约（这一行动在本周于土耳其安卡拉举行的最新会议上仍在继续）。如今，在一些曾经被称为美国盟友的国家中，一种奇怪的情绪正在出现：乐观的决心。国际象棋中有一条公认的原则，同样适用于地缘政治：“威胁之力胜于实际执行。”美国放弃世界秩序的可能性曾经令人恐惧。但现实证明，这其实是一个新的开始。Canada, America’s neighbor, was the first to see it, naturally. Since the beginning of Mr. Trump’s second term, American bullying on trade has been ferocious. As a result, Canada has had to consider what American favor or disfavor is worth. The Bank of Canada recently ran a scenario in which the United States imposed a 25 percent tariff on everything Canada exports to the United States. Canada’s growth of its gross domestic product would slow by about 2.4 percentage points, which over a period of adjustment is well within Canada’s capacity. A disaster, to be sure, but not the end of the world. That’s the worst-case scenario.作为美国的邻国，加拿大自然是最先察觉到这一点的。自从特朗普的第二任期开始以来，美国在贸易上的霸凌行为愈演愈烈。因此，加拿大不得不重新衡量美国的青睐或冷落到底价值如何。加拿大央行最近进行了一项情景模拟：美国对加拿大向其出口的所有商品征收25%的关税。届时加拿大的国内生产总值增速将放缓约2.4个百分点，但在一段调整期内，这完全在加拿大的承受能力之内。这确实是一场灾难，但并非世界末日。这就是最坏的情况。A recent study by economists at the Canadian Shield Institute, commissioned for the podcast “Gloves Off,” which I host, found that Canadian merchandise exports to the United States last year fell by over 30 billion Canadian dollars, (21 billion U.S. dollars), or over 5 percent of exports to the United States. But that loss was offset by nearly 29 billion Canadian dollars in new demand from the rest of the world. When services were included, total exports from Canada increased by almost 7 billion dollars. America can make whatever threats it likes, but if you have the aluminum or oil or potash, somebody will buy it.受我主持的播客节目Gloves Off委托，加拿大盾牌研究所的经济学家最近进行了一项研究。研究发现，去年加拿大对美国的商品出口下降了超300亿加元（约合210亿美元），占对美出口总额的5%以上。但这一损失被来自世界其他地区近290亿加元的新需求所抵消。如果将服务业包括在内，加拿大的总出口额实际上增加了近70亿加元。美国可以随心所欲地发出威胁，但只要你拥有铝、石油或钾肥，总会有人来买。It’s not just Canada. European equities outperformed American equities in 2025, and surged in the first two months of 2026. The European Defense Industrial Strategy, put in place in 2024, is keeping more of Europe’s rapidly expanding military spending within the continent. And after the threat of the European Union’s anti-coercion instrument, the so-called trade bazooka allowing rapid counter tariffs, forced Mr. Trump to back down from his early round of Greenland threats, the Europeans now know that they have their own Strait of Hormuz — their own pain point that can make America flinch.不仅仅是加拿大。欧洲股市在2025年的表现优于美国股市，并在2026年的前两个月大幅飙升。2024年实施的《欧洲国防工业战略》正将欧洲迅速扩大的军事开支更多地保留在欧洲大陆内部。此外，欧盟的反胁迫工具——允许迅速征收反制关税的所谓“贸易火箭筒”——令特朗普被迫放弃了早先针对格陵兰岛的威胁，如今，欧洲人明白他们也有自己的“霍尔木兹海峡”——一个足以让美国退缩的痛点。American military threats have the same diminishing power. If recent history has taught us anything, it’s that when the United States decides to achieve a geopolitical aim by means of military force, you can make a pretty safe bet that aim will not be achieved. Against all odds in a war with the United States, Iran’s corrupt and cruel regime has maintained its power and is now receiving sanctions relief. While the U.S. military invents whole new genres of defeat, the Gulf states, and their airports, have now learned during the Iran war exactly what an American security guarantee is worth.美国的军事威胁同样在失去威力。如果说近代历史教会了我们什么，那就是：当美国决定通过军事力量来实现某个地缘政治目标时，可以相当稳妥地断言，这个目标无法实现。在与美国的战争中，尽管面临重重困难，伊朗那个腐败而残暴的政权却保住了权力，如今甚至获得了制裁豁免。当美国军队发明出各种全新的失败模式时，海湾国家及其机场已经在伊朗战争中切身体会到，美国的安保承诺到底值几个钱。At the NATO meeting in Ankara, where Mr. Trump berated allied nations — especially Spain — and repeated his call for U.S. control of Greenland, the leaders of Spain and Denmark took Mr. Trump’s comments as the idle threats they self-evidently are. Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada may well say that Mr. Trump “won the argument” on NATO members raising their spending levels for defense. The reason they are spending more now may be that they know that American military power is in retreat. American support, whatever that even means anymore, guarantees nothing.在安卡拉举行的北约会议上，特朗普斥责了盟国——尤其是西班牙，并再次呼吁美国控制格陵兰岛，西班牙和丹麦的领导人则将特朗普的言论视为不值一提的空洞威胁。加拿大总理马克·卡尼或许会说，特朗普在北约成员国提高国防开支水平的问题上“赢得了辩论”。但各国现在之所以增加开支，可能是因为他们知道，美国的军事力量正在衰退。美国的支持——无论这在如今意味着什么——已经无法提供任何保障。It’s not just NATO. Bureaucracies once defined by their lethargy are moving at surprising speed to limit their exposure to both the U.S. government and the companies that serve as outposts of American power. Since taking office a little over a year ago, Mr. Carney’s government has made just over 100 international trade deals. The European Union has expanded its defense procurement deliberately to avoid integration with American military forces. Disentanglement from American technology will be the thorniest knot to undo, but the work is already underway on this, too: The European Union has switched from Google to the French Qwant as a default search engine in its official systems, while Belgium and Finland have both moved away from Amazon Web Services.不仅仅是北约。曾经以行动迟缓著称的各国官僚机构正以惊人的速度采取行动，减少对美国政府以及作为美国权力前哨的企业的依赖。自一年多前上任以来，卡尼的政府已达成了刚刚超过100项国际贸易协议。欧盟有意扩大了国防采购，以避免与美国军队的深度融合。摆脱对美国技术的依赖将是最难解开的结，但这方面的工作也已经在进行中：欧盟已在其官方系统中将默认搜索引擎从谷歌切换到了法国的Qwant，比利时和芬兰也都已放弃使用亚马逊云服务。The post-American reality is not a world without America, of course. As a geopolitical actor, the United States has become a kind of lumbering zombie — a beast that can be startled into reflexive actions but lacks higher functions. Much of the world understands that another round of elections in the midterms or in 2028 won’t solve anything. The American people are so divided that the future will be chaotic whoever wins, many outside the United States feel. They fear a sane Republican or Democratic president would not be able to guarantee a stable American policy or consistent application of even the vaguest principles in international relations.当然，后美国时代的现实并不是一个没有美国的世界。作为一个地缘政治参与者，美国已经变成了一种行动迟缓的僵尸——这种怪物可能会因受惊做出条件反射般动作，却已丧失高级思维能力。世界上许多国家都明白，无论是中期选举还是2028年的大选，都解决不了任何问题。美国以外的许多人认为，美国人民的分裂程度已经如此之深，无论谁当选，未来都将陷入混乱。他们担心，即便是一位理智的共和党或民主党总统，也无法保证美国政策的稳定性，甚至无法保证在国际关系中贯彻最模糊的原则。“What is America?” is no longer a grand theoretical question. It is a practical matter. Governors of a number of U.S. states have rational political programs. American institutions survive. Some Americans have even kept their ideals. But as for the entity known as the United States of America, there’s no there there. There’s no America to deal with. An increasingly isolationist America is no longer the leader of the free world. How can it be, when it’s no longer the leader of itself?“什么是美国？”这已不再是一个宏大的理论问题，而是一个实际问题。美国许多州的州长都提出了理性的政治纲领。美国的制度依然存续。一些美国人甚至依然坚守着自己的理想。但那个名为美利坚合众国的实体已经徒有其表。已经没有一个可以打交道的美国了。一个日益孤立主义的美国已不再是自由世界的领导者。既然它连自身都无法领导，又怎么可能领导世界呢？Zombie America creates, at least in the short term, contradictions. In Canada, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, jointly operated with the United States, continues to be our most important alliance. Yet civil servants here have also started training with drones for the possibility of asymmetrical conflict with the United States. Real security can be found only by removing your country from American influence, on every front as far as possible.“僵尸美国”至少在短期内制造了矛盾。在加拿大，与美国联合运营的北美防空司令部仍然是我们最重要的联盟。然而，这里的公务员也开始接受无人机培训，以应对与美国发生不对称冲突的可能性。只有尽可能在各个方面将本国从美国的影响中抽离出来，才能获得真正的安全。“The threat is stronger than the execution” was the wisdom of Aron Nimzowitsch, a leading figure of the hypermodern school of chess. The reason it applies to the chessboard is that all the time and energy you spend trying to figure out how to avoid a disaster turns out to be worse than the disaster itself. Once the worst has happened, you can focus on incremental improvement rather than avoidance. You can become active rather than passive. In geopolitics, too, so much of power is the appearance of power. “威胁之力胜于实际执行”是超现代派国际象棋代表人物阿伦·尼姆佐维奇的智慧之言。它之所以适用于棋盘，是因为你为设法避免灾难而耗费的所有时间和精力结果往往比灾难本身更糟糕。一旦最坏的情况发生，你就可以专注于渐进式的改善，而不是一味规避。你可以变被动为主动。在地缘政治中同样如此，力量在很大程度上其实只是力量的表象。Everybody who believes in freedom and democracy and the dignity of the person and the right of nations to self-determination should be working toward the destruction of the United States’ capacity to project power — to end the strange hold it has over the world so we can all move on. So far, no one is helping more than the United States itself.每一个相信自由、民主、人的尊严以及国家自决权的人都应该致力于摧毁美国投射力量的能力——结束它对这个世界的奇怪掌控，这样我们所有人才能继续前行。到目前为止，在这一点上，没有谁比美国自己的贡献更大了。Stephen Marche是新近出版的《下一场内战》一书的作者。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site