BTC: The October–November Bottom WindowBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTMBM_CryptoBTC: Why October–November Could Be the Most Important Bottoming Window Bitcoin is once again entering the part of the cycle where emotions tend to become extreme. Some people are already calling for much lower prices. Others believe the bottom is already in. My view is somewhere in between: I think BTC is clearly getting closer to a major bottoming region, but I am not fully convinced that the final cycle low has been set yet. The reason is simple: price-based indicators are getting very close to historical bottom zones, but the time-based structure still suggests that the market may need more time. In my opinion, the most interesting window to watch is the October–November period. 1. Time-Based Capitulation: The Market Usually Needs 53–58 Weeks Chart: One of the most important things I am watching is the time from cycle top to cycle bottom. Looking at the previous BTC bear markets, the final cycle low has usually formed around 53–58 weeks after the cycle high. Right now, we are around week 39 from the ATH. That means BTC is already deep into the bear-market structure, but it is still not quite in the historical bottoming window yet. If this cycle follows a similar timing rhythm, then the 53–58 week window points toward a potential bottom around October–November. Of course, history does not repeat perfectly. But Bitcoin has always been a very cyclical asset, and timing has often mattered just as much as price. This is why I do not want to ignore the calendar. 2. Normalized RSI: Already at Historical Bottom Levels Chart: The first major signal comes from the Normalized RSI. This indicator has already reached the same area that has historically been associated with major BTC bottoms. That does not mean price has to bottom immediately. But it does tell us something important: momentum is already deeply washed out. In previous cycles, when normalized RSI reached these levels, BTC was usually either very close to the bottom or already in the final phase of the bear market. This is one of the strongest arguments that we are getting close. 3. Normalized Williams %R: Also in the Bottoming Zone Chart: The Normalized Williams %R is showing a similar message. It has also reached levels that have historically been connected with BTC cycle lows. This is important because it confirms the same idea from a different momentum perspective. It is not just one indicator flashing weakness. Several momentum-based tools are now showing that BTC is trading in an area where downside momentum is already heavily stretched. Again, this does not guarantee that the bottom is in. But it strongly suggests that we are no longer in the early stage of the bear market. We are much closer to the end than the beginning. 4. Normalized MACD: Close, But Not Fully There Yet Chart: The Normalized MACD is also moving toward its historical bottom zone, but in my view, it has not fully confirmed the same level of capitulation yet. This is one reason why I am still open to another leg lower or a final flush. If MACD continues to move into the historical bottom range while the market enters the October–November time window, that would create a much stronger bottoming signal. That kind of setup would be very interesting: price weakness, momentum capitulation, and time capitulation all lining up at the same time. 5. MVRV Z-Score: Very Close, But Not Perfect Yet Chart: The MVRV Z-Score is one of the most useful on-chain valuation tools for identifying extreme undervaluation in BTC. Right now, it is very close to the historical bottom region, but it has not fully reached the deepest levels yet. This is another reason why I do not want to say with confidence that the bottom is already in. The market is definitely much more attractive now than it was near the top, but historically the best opportunities have often appeared when MVRV fully enters the bottoming range. We are close — but not perfectly there yet. 6. Puell Multiple: Still Leaves Room for More Capitulation Chart: The Puell Multiple is also worth watching. This indicator looks at miner revenue conditions, and historically it has been useful for identifying periods where miners are under pressure and the market is deeply undervalued. Right now, Puell Multiple is moving in the right direction, but it still has not reached the most extreme historical bottom levels. This suggests that miner-side capitulation may not be fully complete yet. That does not mean BTC must crash much lower. But it does mean the market may still need more time, more sideways movement, or one final downside move before a stronger bottom is formed. 7. Price Expectations: What Kind of Drawdown Makes Sense? In previous BTC bear markets, the drawdowns from cycle top to cycle bottom were brutal: 2013–2015: around 85–87% 2017–2018: around 84% 2021–2022: around 77% I do not think an old-school 85% crash is the base case this time. The market is more mature now. Spot ETFs and institutional demand have changed the structure. There is probably more long-term demand underneath the market than in previous cycles. But that does not mean BTC cannot still correct heavily. My base expectation for this cycle is a 60–70% correction from the cycle top. That would put BTC somewhere around the $38k–$50k area, depending on the exact top used. This is how I currently see the probabilities: 25% probability: Mild bear / support holds 50–60% correction → around $50k–$58k 45% probability: Normal bear-market reset 60–70% correction → around $38k–$50k 25% probability: Deep macro shock 70–77% correction → around $29k–$38k 5% probability: Full old-cycle style crash 77–84% correction → around $20k–$29k My main scenario is not a complete collapse. But I also do not believe the ETF era removes bear markets. High rates, sticky inflation, ETF outflows, weak liquidity, recession risk, and geopolitical stress can still push BTC lower than most people expect. 8. Why October–November Makes Sense The reason I am focusing on October–November is because this is where several things could line up: Time from ATH reaches the historical 53–58 week bottoming window. Normalized RSI is already at historical bottom levels. Normalized Williams %R is already at historical bottom levels. Normalized MACD is getting close to its bottoming range. MVRV Z-Score is close, but not fully there yet. Puell Multiple still suggests that deeper capitulation is possible. This combination tells me that the market is likely entering the final part of the bear-market structure, but we may still need more time before the cycle low is fully confirmed. In other words, BTC may already be in the bottoming process, but the final low could still form later. 9. My Personal View I am not trying to call the exact bottom. That is usually impossible. What I am trying to identify is the area where risk/reward starts becoming attractive again. For me, BTC starts becoming very interesting below $50k. The low $40k area would be a serious accumulation zone. If we get a deeper macro shock into the $30k–$40k region, I would view that as a major opportunity, assuming the long-term thesis remains intact. But I would not be surprised if the market remains difficult for a while longer. The bottoming process usually takes time. It is rarely clean. It usually comes with fear, boredom, failed rallies, and many people giving up. That is exactly why the October–November window is so important to me. Final Thoughts The way I see it, BTC is getting close to the bottom line — both in terms of price and time. Several indicators are already at or near historical bottom levels. But some of the deeper valuation and miner-related indicators still suggest that the market may not be fully washed out yet. This is why I think the next few months are extremely important. If BTC continues to move lower or sideways into the October–November window while these indicators enter deeper historical bottom zones, then the setup for a major cycle low becomes much stronger. My main view: BTC is closer to the bottom than the top. The best risk/reward is likely below $50k. October–November is the key window to watch. A final flush is still possible. But the long-term opportunity is starting to become much more interesting. Not financial advice.