Position #2: $USAR Update - bought my 3rd tranche (av. $17.5)USA Rare Earth, Inc. Class ABATS:USARColdBloodedCharterPosition #2: USAR Update As planned in my previous post (June 15), I added my third tranche. My average entry price is now around $17.5, very close to long-term support. This remains one of the higher-risk positions in my portfolio. Let's start with the fundamentals. The current financials don't look great. Revenue is still minimal, the company continues to post operating losses, and for the next few years it probably won't be valued based on earnings. Right now, the market is pricing the project's long-term potential rather than today's financial results. The interesting part is that USAR doesn't want to be just another mining company. The goal is to build a complete American NdFeB magnet supply chain - from rare earth mining, through separation and processing, all the way to finished permanent magnets. Those finished magnets are where the real value is created. They are used in robotics, AI data centers, electric vehicles, defense, energy infrastructure and industrial automation. The highest margins are generated at the end of the value chain, not at the mine itself. Today, roughly 90% of global NdFeB magnet production is concentrated in China. The United States is trying to build its own domestic supply chain, which is why executing this roadmap is likely to matter far more than any single quarterly earnings report. At the moment, the roadmap looks roughly like this: • Round Top deposit development ✔️ ongoing • Rare earth separation facilities ✔️ under development • First commercial NdFeB magnet production ✔️ completed - production is now ramping up while the company begins fulfilling initial customer orders • Large commercial contracts with AI, robotics, EV, defense and data center customers ▶️ next major milestone • Fully integrated supply chain and positive cash flow ▶️ long-term objective That's exactly why I consider USAR a higher-risk position. The investment thesis depends on successfully building and scaling this entire supply chain. If management keeps delivering on the roadmap, the upside could be significant. If not, the market will reprice the stock just as quickly. Technically, the chart is becoming increasingly interesting. For months, price has respected both the long-term rising trendline and the major horizontal support and resistance levels. Right now, we're trading once again inside the yellow pivot zone between $18.7 and $20, one of the most important areas on the entire chart. Three technical signals are converging here. The current falling wedge breakout sits around $19.8, the daily 200 MA is at roughly $20.25, and both align with the long-term horizontal S/R zone. That kind of confluence usually deserves attention. What's even more interesting is that falling wedges have appeared repeatedly on this daily chart, and nearly every one has reached its measured breakout target. If history repeats itself once again, the next technical target would be around $31.7. RSI also deserves attention. Price made a lower low, while RSI formed a double bottom instead. The remaining piece is a breakout above the local RSI downtrend, which would either confirm or invalidate the current bullish thesis. I've already added my third tranche. In my opinion, this is a stock that works both as an active trading position and as a longer-term investment. Just looking at the chart, there have been multiple opportunities to take profits and later re-accumulate at much lower prices. If the company continues checking off the remaining roadmap milestones - especially securing commercial contracts and expanding magnet production - I believe the market could eventually start valuing USAR more like a strategic advanced manufacturer serving AI and robotics, rather than simply another rare earth mining company. This is not financial advice, just my blog. 💙👽