We expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% today, with another 6-3 vote split, fully in line with consensus. Pricing is only 2bp for today, but 41bp by year-end and 93 by July 2027.While three members are likely to continue voting for a hike, we see little evidence that the six doves are moving in that direction. In fact, several policymakers have become increasingly confident that the latest energy shock will not generate the sort of second-round inflation effects seen in 2022, a view that was broadly endorsed by August's CPI report.The main question for the meeting is therefore not whether the hawks will keep calling for tighter policy, but whether Governor Andrew Bailey signals any discomfort with market pricing.We expect these dovish risks to feed into a weaker sterling against the dollar and the euro. EUR/GBP remains our preferred way to play that GBP weakness beyond the near term, and we target 0.87 by year-end.