XAUUSD — 4,293 Hold or 4,261 Sweep?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDTiara_PrimeGold Gold is trading around 4,321 after another weak M30 rotation inside the descending channel. The short-term bounce has lost momentum below the nearby resistance area, while sellers are still controlling the broader structure under the falling dynamic resistance. Macro conditions also remain difficult for Gold. Markets are heavily pricing a Fed rate hike this week, Treasury yields remain elevated, and higher oil prices are keeping inflation concerns alive. But this is also why the lower zones matter. A bearish trend does not mean price falls in a straight line. The reaction is the signal. The simple read M30 structure is still moving inside a clear descending channel. Price continues to form lower reaction highs, while the upper channel resistance has repeatedly limited recovery attempts. The first area I am watching is around 4,293. This zone sits near the lower channel structure and can create the first buyer reaction if price reaches it with slowing bearish momentum. However, 4,293 is not an automatic buy. If sellers push through this level, the stronger support sits around 4,261. That area combines channel support with visible demand, making it the more important liquidity reaction zone on this chart. On the upside, 4,340–4,350 is the first short-term resistance. Above that, the larger 4,398–4,410 area around 4,404 combines supply with descending channel resistance. That remains the main seller test. Key price zones Current price area: 4,321 Short-term resistance: 4,340–4,350 Reaction support: around 4,293 Channel support + demand: around 4,261 Major supply + channel resistance: 4,398–4,410 Bullish pressure improves above: 4,350 Broader recovery improves above: 4,404 Bearish pressure strengthens below: 4,293 Trading plan Buy reaction scenario If Gold reaches the 4,293 reaction support: I will first watch how sellers behave inside the zone. A clean rejection or strong buyer response may create a short-term recovery toward 4,340–4,350. But I will not treat the first touch as confirmation. If 4,293 fails, the deeper 4,261 demand area becomes more interesting. A liquidity sweep into 4,261 followed by a clear recovery could offer a stronger reaction structure back toward the upper side of the channel. Sell reaction scenario If Gold rebounds into 4,340–4,350 and buyers cannot hold above it: This can remain the first sell reaction area. Price may rotate back toward 4,293 and potentially the deeper 4,261 support. Breakout scenario If Gold breaks 4,350 and holds the retest: The short-term recovery becomes stronger. The next important target becomes the descending dynamic resistance, followed by the 4,398–4,410 supply area. A sustained hold above 4,404 would be the stronger signal that the current M30 bearish channel is losing control. Breakdown scenario If Gold loses 4,293 with clean bearish continuation: I would not chase the breakdown. The next important reaction area becomes 4,261, where channel support and demand meet. The M30 trend is still bearish. 4,293 is the first buyer test. 4,261 is the stronger demand test. 4,340–4,350 is the first seller test. 4,404 remains the major resistance decision zone.