The Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, with representatives of the State Security Forces at the Tarajal border (Ceuta), 31 July 2026. Moncloa / Borja Puig de la BellacasaThe crisis in Ceuta has put Pedro Sánchez’s government on the defensive, just as Spain’s political actors return from the summer break. Weeks after the crisis began, the situation remains unresolved. Of the estimated 80,000 migrants who entered Ceuta in late July, 5,482 remain. Fierce debate has raged over the government’s handling of the crisis, with protests across the country, a deepening culture war, and violent attacks on migrants in Ceuta – some allegedly carried out by Spanish soldiers.Within Spain, the crisis has barely left the headlines for the last seven weeks. While a permanent solution has yet to emerge, one thing is clear: the government has missed a vital chance to frame the issue of migration on its own terms.This year’s mass regularisation saw Sánchez taking the initiative. In doing so, he cast himself – and by extension Spain – as a champion of human rights, one who pushes back against Europe’s prevailing anti-migrant sentiment, placing the economy and inclusion at the centre of the debate. After Ceuta, that momentum has been reversed. As Spain approaches an election year, the crisis has given the conservative People’s Party (PP) and, above all, the far-right Vox more room to set the agenda.A missed chanceSetting the political agenda is one of the main advantages of being in government. Ruling parties can choose which issues to prioritise, and define the terms on which they are discussed. Back in January, some saw the mass migrant regularisation as bold, while others saw it as opportunistic. Either way, it gave the PSOE, Sánchez’s Socialist Party, the upper hand. By placing the economy and the inclusion of migrants at the centre of the discussion, the government was shaping the debate through a policy of its own.Now, Ceuta has shifted the focus towards insecurity and deportations. Spain’s far right party Vox describes the crisis as an “invasion”, framing migration in terms that suit its own goals. Immigration is central to Vox’s discourse: it helps define its political identity and gives it prominence on the national stage.The government took more than a month to properly respond to the Ceuta crisis, a delay spanning the August holiday period that gave other actors room to firmly establish their own version of events. As the crisis became entrenched, Sánchez increasingly found himself responding to an agenda set by others.This delay also matters hugely for the thousands of migrants caught in legal limbo in Ceuta, whose situation remains unresolved while they sleep in tents and on the street. Leer más: Ceuta crisis: anti-migrant ‘invasion’ rhetoric threatens Europe’s food supply and economy The government did have other options. Though Sánchez visited Ceuta just after the incident, he and his ministers could have gone further by cutting short their holidays, holding an emergency cabinet meeting in Ceuta, or even declaring a “situation of interest to national security” sooner. With so much at stake, taking any kind of initiative would have been better than the political inaction that followed. Instead, the PSOE handed the right and far right a chance to define the crisis and set the terms of the debate.A hostile international contextTensions with Morocco are a recurring feature of Spanish politics. The crisis in Ceuta has revived memories of 2021, when a mass border crossing coincided with a diplomatic dispute over Spain’s decision to provide medical treatment to Brahim Ghali. Ghali leads the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony currently under Moroccan occupation. In 2022, Sánchez shifted Spain’s position towards support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, helping to repair relations with Rabat.The question of Spanish citizenship for Sahrawis has added another sensitive issue. On September 10, Congress approved a bill promoted by the left-wing party Sumar to grant citizenship for Sahrawis born under Spanish administration, with the PP abstaining and Vox voting against. The proposal must still pass through the Senate.For Sánchez, these debates come at a difficult moment abroad. The international arena had been a source of political strength for both the prime minister and his government, but the Ceuta crisis could undo the international diplomatic gains of recent years.On August 1, 22 EU leaders signed a letter calling for an urgent coordinated response to the Ceuta crisis, warning that large-scale regularisation could encourage irregular migration. Soon after, Italy introduced checks on non-EU travellers arriving from Spain, prompting Madrid to respond in kind. The political consequences of the crisis are nevertheless being felt most directly at home. Ceuta has interrupted the momentum created by regularisation, and brought relations with Morocco back to the centre of the national debate. With elections on the horizon, the combined effect is a huge setback for Sánchez. Leer más: Europe relies on Morocco to keep migrants out – Ceuta shows the political cost Electoral consequencesNext year, Spain is due to hold local, regional, and general elections. While campaigns have not officially begun, the competition to shape them is already well underway.Getting an issue to dominate a campaign is already a political victory. Defining how it is framed is another key victory. Regularisation gave the government an opportunity to take the initiative on migration, but its current framing will favour the right, particularly Vox.The PSOE approaches these elections weakened by corruption allegations within its ranks, as well as regional election defeats and setbacks in the courts. Ceuta adds to those pressures.Recent polls suggest that the PSOE retains a sizeable electorate, but it may not be enough to sustain a governing majority. One recent opinion poll, conducted between August 31 and September 2 2026, put the Socialists at 27.6%, with its coalition partners Sumar and Podemos at 5.7% and 2.8% respectively. Limited support for these parties, which sit to the left of the PSOE, complicates the parliamentary arithmetic. Another poll, conducted on September 1-3, projected 202 seats for the PP and Vox combined, well above the 176 needed for an absolute majority. The Socialists’ continued electoral resilience could therefore coexist with defeat for the left as a whole.Elections are still months away, so this outcome remains uncertain. But if the next general election is fought on terms increasingly favourable to Vox, the party’s influence could extend beyond the seats it wins. A PP-led coalition government could emerge, with Vox setting much of its agenda. As for Sánchez, the cost of the opportunity missed in Ceuta could long outlast the crisis itself. A weekly e-mail in English featuring expertise from scholars and researchers. It provides an introduction to the diversity of research coming out of the continent and considers some of the key issues facing European countries. 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