This morning’s ZEW in Germany is expected to keep improving. Consensus is looking at a jump from 34 to 40 in the expectations gauge and from -61 to -52 in the current situation one. That’s effectively the only data release with any market-impact potential this week - unless final August CPI prints show large revisions. Anyway, the echo of last week’s hawkish ECB hike remains a more relevant driver for any euro resilience at this stage.Our models suggest EUR/USD is close to its short-term fair value model, slightly leaning towards undervaluation. That said, global equities and short-term rates have the highest betas on EUR/USD at the moment: a risk-off, hawkish hike by the Fed tomorrow could easily take the pair to our 1.150 short-term target.