The Economist: “In the age of Donald Trump, beware of sure things. Democrats are heavy favourites to take back control of the House of Representatives on November 3rd. Opposition parties have historically done well in midterms, and Mr Trump’s deep unpopularity, persistent inflation and the Iran war have created a particularly poisonous environment for his party. The Economist’s election forecast model rates Democrats’ chances at 92%, and prediction markets are nearly as confident.”“Yet events predicted to occur only one time out of ten do nonetheless occur, and Mr Trump and his MAGA faithful have outperformed polls often enough since 2016 to give pause.”