The backers of a massive LNG shipping terminal proposed for the B.C. coast signed their third supply deal of the year, with Australia’s Santos Ltd. agreeing to buy close to 10 per cent of Ksi Lisims ’ capacity over 20 years. Although significant, analysts suggest a deal like this is not enough to achieve the federal government’s ambitious, long-term goal of becoming the world’s third-biggest LNG exporter. Still, the deal is the latest sign that Canada’s nascent LNG sector is starting to find real footing in global markets, following earlier Ksi Lisims agreements with Germany’s Uniper SE and SEFE Gmbh. What’s more, it landed on the same week as Canada’s first international Investment Summit in Toronto, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s bid to attract billions of dollars’ worth of foreign investment. “Ksi Lisims LNG’s third international deal being signed the same week shows that it is our moment – if we choose to seize it,” Tim Hodgson, Canada’s minister of energy and natural resources, said in a statement. Ksi Lisims, a $30-billion floating LNG facility proposed for the north coast of B.C., in partnership with the Nisga’a Nation, would become the country’s second-largest LNG terminal after LNG Canada. “The level of interest we are seeing from leading global energy companies like Santos reflects a growing global role for reliable, low carbon Canadian LNG,” added Davis Thames in the same statement. Thames is the founder and chief executive of Western LNG, Ksi Lisims’ lead developer and future operator. Taken together, the deals reflect a broader shift in Canada’s trade posture. As recently as 2024, less than one per cent of the country’s natural gas exports went to markets outside the United States. Ottawa now aims to send roughly half of Canada’s natural gas exports to non-U.S. buyers over the next 10 years. In an evolving energy market landscape, Hodgson said foreign demand for Canadian exports will only grow. “Projects like this demonstrate how Canada can be a leading energy superpower for years to come,” he said. But new analysis from S&P Global Energy suggests that even with deals like Ksi Lisims’ progressing, Canada remains well short of the scale the federal government is trying to attain for exported LNG. S&P Global expects Canadian LNG terminals will produce close to 36 million tonnes of the fuel every year by 2035. That’s roughly double the capacity of the country’s only operating terminal, LNG Canada’s, which took 16 years to bring online. Ottawa’s stated goal, however, is to churn out 100 million tonnes a year, which would make Canada the world’s third-largest LNG exporter. “It’s an incredibly aggressive goal. Technically achievable, but it would require an alignment of policy we haven’t seen in a long time,” said Kevin Birn, S&P Global’s chief analyst for Canadian energy markets. Closing that gap, S&P Global’s analysts argue, would require production investment in Canada at a pace and scale unlike anything the industry has previously undertaken. “We’re blessed with the geology and the geography to enable this,” added Birn. “But to realize that (goal), you have to realize all of the associated upstream infrastructure that goes with it. There has to be a plan that’s inclusive of everything.” The firm points to policy clarity, stable investment conditions, supply-chain readiness and Indigenous consultation as key variables determining whether Canada gets there or not. “Canada has a massive advantage,” said Birn. “We’re stable, and we’re proximate to key demand regions. But the world won’t wait for Canada any longer.” The competitive backdrop Birn refers to is what adds urgency. S&P Global projects international LNG demand of roughly 176 million tonnes a year of new supply capacity by 2050. The firm also estimates that some 600-million annual tonnes of output from competing projects in places like Argentina, Alaska and Qatar are chasing that same opportunity. “Canada’s ultimate share of that market opportunity will come down to speed and conviction,” said Birn. “We’re asking investors for billions of dollars and to wait five years or more before they see a return. They need to know the rules will be the same the whole way through.” Ksi Lisims signs second deal to supply Germany with LNGGermany, Canada reach major LNG deal as Europe seeks energy security Birn suggests that if Canada doesn’t hit the government’s goal by 2050, the lost prize will be more than just the 100 number alone. “It’s everything that comes with it: thousands of miles of pipe and export terminals for LNG and oil. It’s much more than the sum of its parts.” Natural Resources Canada, meanwhile, frames deals like the Ksi Lisims-Santos agreement as evidence the country’s trade diversification strategy is working. The defining question, though, is whether Canada can close the gap between what analysts expect and what Ottawa wants. “This is about taking a fledgling industry and making it the third largest in the world,” Birn said. • Email: jarose@postmedia.com