伊朗多次袭击、美国不愿介入:沙特面临“最坏情况”

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VIVIAN NEREIM2026年9月15日Vantor卫星照片显示上周遭袭后的沙特东西向输油管道。 Vantor, via ReutersSaudi Arabia has increasingly found itself caught in the middle of the war between the United States and Iran. Now, the kingdom’s leadership is assessing dwindling options on how to respond.沙特阿拉伯越来越发现,自己夹在美国与伊朗的战争中间。如今,沙特领导层正在权衡不断减少的应对选项。In recent weeks, the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has repeatedly attacked the kingdom, threatening to throttle its ability to export oil and piling pressure on the global economy. But Saudi Arabia has been left frustrated and disappointed by President Trump’s reluctance to confront the Houthis, former diplomats and analysts say.过去几周,与伊朗结盟的也门胡塞武装多次袭击沙特,威胁要掐断沙特的石油出口能力,并给全球经济进一步施压。但据前外交官和分析人士称,特朗普总统不愿对胡塞武装采取行动,让沙特方面既恼火又失望。The kingdom’s diplomatic efforts to engage with Iran have also had limited results. A meeting planned on Monday between officials from Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries was abruptly postponed on Sunday night, as the gap between their positions remained vast.沙特试图与伊朗的外交接触也收效有限。伊朗、沙特和其他海湾国家官员原定于周一举行会议,但由于各方立场分歧仍然巨大,在周日晚间突然推迟。“Right now the Saudis are really frustrated,” said Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “In some sense it’s their worst-case scenario.”“现在沙特人真的非常沮丧,”美国驻沙特前大使迈克尔·拉特尼说。“从某种意义上说,这正是他们最不愿看到的局面。”The Saudi government’s Center for International Communication, which fields queries from journalists, did not respond to a request for comment.沙特政府负责回应记者询问的国际传播中心没有回应置评请求。The kingdom’s conundrum underscores the heavy costs that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has imposed across the Middle East, including on countries whose leaders opposed the war or have sought repeatedly to bring it to an end.沙特的困境凸显了美以与伊朗的战争给整个中东地区带来的沉重代价,包括那些反对这场战争或多次试图促成战争结束的国家。In the first few months of the fighting, Saudi Arabia was relatively untouched by Iran’s retaliatory attacks, compared with its neighbors. Now, with no end to the hostilities in sight, Iran is seeking greater leverage over the United States, and Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest oil exporter until the war knocked it down the list — has become a primary target.在冲突最初几个月,与邻国相比,沙特相对未受伊朗报复性袭击影响。如今,随着敌对行动看不到结束的迹象,伊朗正寻求对美国施加更大的筹码,沙特已成为主要目标,该国在战争爆发前曾是全球最大石油出口国。Over the past two weeks alone, Saudi Arabia has faced Iran-backed attacks from the east, the south and the north.仅过去两周,沙特就在东、南、北三个方向受到亲伊朗势力的袭击。A Saudi oil tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz at the end of August, killing two sailors.8月底,一艘沙特油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭到袭击,造成两名船员死亡。On Friday, the Houthi militia, which had already declared a blockade on Saudi oil shipments through the Red Sea, seized territory on an important global shipping route and trounced Saudi-allied forces in Yemen.周五,已宣布封锁沙特经红海石油运输的胡塞武装夺取了一条重要全球航运路线上的领土,并击溃了沙特支持的也门部队。The same day, the Saudi authorities announced that they had been forced to shut down a critical oil pipeline, blaming a drone attack by an Iran-backed Iraqi militia. The pipeline had become a key alternative export route for Saudi Arabia to get its oil to the Red Sea, after Iran effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz.同一天,沙特当局宣布被迫关闭一条至关重要的输油管道,归咎于伊朗支持的伊拉克民兵发动的无人机袭击。在伊朗事实上切断霍尔木兹海峡之后,这条管道已经成为沙特将石油输往红海的一个重要替代出口通道。“The reason a country like Saudi Arabia invests so heavily in developing a security partnership with the United States is for just this sort of eventuality,” said Mr. Ratney, the former ambassador.“像沙特这样的国家之所以投入如此巨大的资源来发展与美国的安全伙伴关系,就是为了应对这种可能出现的情况,”前大使拉特尼说。Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the country’s de facto ruler, had reasons to be confident in that partnership. For years, his government has invested billions of dollars and extensive political capital in building personal relationships with Mr. Trump and his family.沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼是该国事实上的统治者,他原本有理由对这种伙伴关系充满信心。多年来,沙特政府投入数十亿美元以及大量政治资本,与特朗普及其家族建立私人关系。特朗普总统与沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼去年在白宫。这位沙特领导人和他的政府多年来一直拉拢总统及其家族。But when the crown prince asked Mr. Trump last week to take military action against the Houthis, the president declined, according to officials with knowledge of the conversations.但据知情人士透露,上周王储请求特朗普对胡塞武装采取军事行动时,总统拒绝了。Saudi officials and pundits have been clear that the kingdom does not want to fight the Houthis alone. That is especially true because an earlier military campaign that Saudi Arabia led against the group turned into a decade-long quagmire.沙特官员和评论人士已明确表示,沙特不想单独与胡塞武装作战。尤其是因为,此前由沙特领导的针对胡塞武装的一场军事行动最终陷入长达十年的泥潭。“This demands international support, not only from Saudi Arabia and regional countries,” Abdulrahman al-Rashed, a columnist close to the Saudi government, wrote in a Saudi-owned newspaper on Saturday.“这需要国际社会的支持,而不能只靠沙特和地区国家,”与沙特政府关系密切的专栏作家阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·拉希德周六在一家沙特拥有的报纸上写道。Mr. Trump, however, appears reluctant to get involved.然而,特朗普似乎不愿介入。“Already confronting one open-ended conflict with Iran, with an overstretched Navy and a diminishing munitions stockpile, it’s unsurprising that he does not want to open this new front,” said Dan Shapiro, a former top Middle East policy official in the Pentagon during the Biden administration. “But it is bitterly disappointing to the Saudis.”“已经在与伊朗进行一场没有止境的冲突,海军不堪重负,弹药库存不断减少,因此他不想再开辟一个新的战线,这并不令人意外,”拜登政府时期五角大楼前中东政策高级官员丹·夏皮罗说。“但这让沙特人深感失望。”On Saturday, Mr. Trump told journalists on a trip to Ireland that the Houthis had “called us and they don’t want to fight with us.”周六,特朗普在访问爱尔兰期间对记者说,胡塞武装已经“给我们打了电话,他们不想与我们作战”。“There’s just one country that they’re not too happy with and we’ll get that straightened out,” he added, referring to Saudi Arabia.他随后补充说:“只有一个国家让他们不太满意,我们会把这件事处理好。”他指的是沙特阿拉伯。Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi political official, denied that the group had reached out to the United States. “We did not communicate with Trump, nor did we ask him not to attack us,” he said.胡塞武装政治官员穆罕默德·布哈伊蒂否认该组织曾与美国接触。“我们没有与特朗普沟通,也没有要求他不要攻击我们,”他说。周日,也门塔伊兹省的一个临时营地。由于伊朗结盟的胡塞武装与沙特支持的也门政府军之间的战斗,数千人流离失所。Whether the United States gets involved in Yemen is still a matter of discussion, and Washington is continuing to assist Saudi Arabia with intelligence, said Vice Admiral John W. Miller, a retired U.S. Navy commander in the Middle East.曾指挥美国驻中东海军部队的退役海军中将约翰·米勒说,美国是否介入也门仍在讨论中,华盛顿正在继续向沙特提供情报协助。Saudi Arabia is now likely to turn to diplomacy, according to Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the State Department. Despite years of Saudi, U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns against the Houthis, “no one has come up with a military solution” for dealing with them, she said.美国国务院负责近东事务的前助理国务卿芭芭拉·利夫说,沙特现在很可能会转向外交手段。尽管沙特、美国和以色列多年来一直对胡塞武装展开轰炸,“没有人找到过解决胡塞问题的军事方案”,她说。Saudi Arabia could also work with its neighbors and Iran to hammer out an “ugly set of arrangements” to bring the war with Iran to an end, she said.她说,沙特也可以与邻国以及伊朗合作,通过谈判达成一套“并不甚体面的安排”,以结束与伊朗的战争。The kingdom could look to China to try to find a solution, but Beijing’s previous diplomatic efforts in the region have not led to lasting peace deals, she noted. China brokered a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 that has since frayed.她指出,沙特可能会向中国求助,以寻找解决方案,但北京此前在该地区的外交努力并未带来持久和平协议。中国曾在2023年促成沙特与伊朗和解,但此后双方关系已经出现裂痕。For now, Saudi officials are unlikely to complain publicly about the United States, however frustrated they feel, analysts said.分析人士说,就目前而言,无论沙特官员多么沮丧,他们都不太可能公开抱怨美国。“They’re not going to show some sort of distance,” she said. “They’re going to have to generate some other diplomatic effort.”“他们不会表现出某种疏远的姿态,”她说。“他们将不得不开展其他外交努力。”Eric Schmitt自华盛顿、Shuaib Almosawa自也门萨那对本文有报道贡献。Vivian Nereim是时报报道阿拉伯半岛各国的首席记者,常驻沙特阿拉伯利雅得。翻译:杜然点击查看本文英文版。