H1 Major Supply Rejection Toward Lower LiquidityGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMason_DrakeXAUUSD is trading around 4,378 after extending its recovery from the lower H1 structure. Price has returned directly into the 4,385–4,405 Major Supply Zone, where the broader bearish trendline also remains relevant. Gold reached a one-week high on Friday as easing crude oil prices reduced part of the inflation pressure that had dominated markets earlier in the week. Spot gold climbed about 1.2%, while softer energy prices helped Treasury yields retreat from their recent highs. However, the broader macro backdrop remains restrictive. The Fed has raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% and still expects further tightening, while markets currently price roughly a 55% probability of another hike in October. The dollar also remains near a seven-week high, and the U.S. 10-year yield has recently traded above 5%, limiting the strength of gold’s recovery. Technical View The H1 recovery has improved after the recent MSS and rebound from lower demand, but price is now entering the main decision area. The 4,385–4,405 Major Supply Zone aligns with the previous bearish trendline and recent swing structure. This makes the current area less attractive for chasing longs. A rejection or failed acceptance above this supply could trigger a corrective move back toward the 4,335–4,350 Demand Zone. If that demand fails to absorb selling pressure, the larger downside objective sits around 4,270–4,290, where the marked downside target and previous liquidity structure align. Below that, the 4,235–4,250 Major Demand / SSL Zone remains the deeper structural support. Key Zones Current Price: 4,378.385 Major Supply / Sell Area: 4,385–4,405 Demand Zone: 4,335–4,350 Downside Target: 4,270–4,290 Major Demand / SSL: 4,235–4,250 Bearish invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance above 4,410–4,420 Trading Plan Sell Priority: 4,385–4,405 Condition: wait for price to retest Major Supply and show bearish rejection, liquidity sweep, failed acceptance or lower-high confirmation. TP1: 4,335–4,350 TP2: 4,270–4,290 TP3: 4,235–4,250 Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance above 4,420. Sell View The cleaner approach is to avoid selling aggressively below current price after the recent recovery. I prefer to let gold test 4,385–4,405 first. If sellers clearly defend the zone, the risk/reward improves for a rotation back toward demand. A clean H1 breakout and acceptance above 4,420 would weaken the immediate bearish scenario and require reassessment. Important Note Lower oil prices are helping gold recover in the short term, but the Fed’s renewed tightening cycle, a strong dollar and elevated Treasury yields remain important headwinds. This creates a two-sided environment where liquidity sweeps around resistance may be aggressive. Final View Gold has recovered strongly, but H1 is now testing a key supply area rather than trading from clean demand. The main scenario is a retest and rejection from 4,385–4,405, followed by a move toward 4,335–4,350 first and potentially 4,270–4,290 if bearish momentum expands. Will H1 Major Supply stop the recovery before gold rotates back toward lower liquidity?