FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold probed below the key $4,300 support this week but hasn’t confirmed the breakout, as the price got stuck in a consolidation. This morning, we are seeing some bids, but it could be just noise ahead of the FOMC decision later today. The decision could trigger big moves, especially if we get deviations from the expectations. The consensus is for the Fed to hike by 25 bps, with potentially one or two dissenters voting for a hold. At this meeting, we get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot Plot. Traders will be focused on the latter where the Fed is expected to project two more rate hikes, one in 2026 and one in 2027. This would still be below the current market pricing of three more rate hikes by the end of 2027. Fed Chair Warsh is not expected to offer much in terms of forward guidance but just repeat his Jackson Hole message. If the Fed signals three or more further hikes, that would likely be taken as a hawkish surprise and weigh on gold. Conversely, a forecast suggesting just one or two more rate hikes could be taken as dovish and could give gold a boost. The other major focus will be developments in the Middle East, as oil prices continue to trade above $100 level and fuel inflation concerns amid worsening disruptions. Oil prices have been the key driver of markets recently, so any de-escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices lower and lead to a dovish repricing, which could ultimately support gold.For now, I think the fundamentals point to further downside for gold as we would need a de-escalation in the Middle East or a dovish Fed to change the picture. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see gold rebounded yesterday as the price rose back above the key 4,300 support. The buyers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 4,890 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the support to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,890 level next, with the 4,510 level as the first target.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline acting as resistance. The sellers will likely step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the rally into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the FOMC rate decision. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. Traders will also keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.