Gold Pre-FOMC: 4,260 Sweep Before 4,370?GoldOANDA:XAUUSDMMFlowTrading Market Overview • Macro Driver: Spot Gold hovers near $4,313 on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, as global markets brace for today's pivotal FOMC Interest Rate Decision and the release of the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP / Dot Plot). While policy rates are widely projected to remain steady at 3.50%–3.75%, institutional desks are hyper-focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's forward guidance regarding persistent underlying inflation and balance sheet velocity. • Market Condition: Institutional order flow reflects a classic pre-FOMC volatility compression. After absorbing sell-side liquidity at the 4,260 Demand Zone, smart money is coiling price within a tight range between the 4,260 base and 4,320 Resistance Zone, preparing for an aggressive post-announcement directional expansion toward overhead channel resistance. Technical Context • Structure: Re-Accumulation within Bearish Descending Channel. On the 1H timeframe, Gold remains bound beneath the multi-week descending trendline from the 4,511.089 Strong High. Following multiple CHoCH and BOS downside sweeps, price printed a double-bottom absorption at the Demand Zone (4,260 – 4,275). • Liquidity & Imbalance: Price delivery shows immediate rejection at the 4,310–4,320 Resistance Zone (current market price: 4,313.03). The technical roadmap anticipates a shallow corrective retest into the 4,260–4,275 Demand Zone to engineer final buy-side liquidity, followed by an impulsive breakout push piercing through 4,320 to target the Intermediate Supply Block (4,350 – 4,370) and test the descending channel ceiling. Key Zones • Macro Structural Ceiling (Strong High): 4,511.08 • Upper Supply Block: 4,420.000 – 4,435.000 • Intermediate Supply Target (Blue Box): 4,350.00 – 4,370.00 • Immediate Overhead Resistance Zone (Grey Box): 4,310.00 – 4,322.00 • Current Market Price: 4,313.03 • Structural Demand Zone Base (Grey Box): 4,260.00 – 4,275.00 Trading Plan (IF–THEN) • IF price delivers a corrective liquidity tap into the 4,260 – 4,275 Demand Zone AND validates lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bullish displacement/CHoCH -> THEN look to execute Long positions targeting 4,315, expanding through 4,322 directly toward the 4,350.00 – 4,370.00 Intermediate Supply / trendline ceiling. • IF price confirms a decisive 1H close below 4,250 during the FOMC rate release -> THEN the demand accumulation thesis is invalidated, unlocking a deeper sell-side flush toward 4,220. MMFLOW View • Bias: Pre-News Accumulation / Post-FOMC Bullish Expansion. Fading the range midpoint at 4,313 ahead of the Fed rate decision presents poor risk-to-reward; our mathematical edge favors buying verified liquidity defenses at the 4,260–4,275 demand floor to ride the expansion wave into descending channel resistance.