$GLD Daily Close — Sep 14SPDR Gold SharesBATS:GLDMTrades-TTSGLD Daily Close — Sep 14 GLD looks much weaker than SPY and QQQ right now. 395 broke, and I've flipped to a short bias against 400. The level went on a close — 392.84, after gapping down to 391.89 and failing the reclaim attempt at 395.90. 395.51 was support for a week. It's resistance now, and the retest already happened inside today's session. I'm going to be straight about one thing though, because it cuts against my own bias. Volume on this break was 7.28M against a 12.16M average — 60%, the lowest reading of the entire run. Look at the sequence: 9.8, 8.7, 8.0, 10.2, 10.7, then 7.3. Volume built into the level and then vanished on the break. Weak candle with low volume, and here's the part worth understanding: in VSA, a down bar on low volume is No Supply. The selling isn't there. Price fell because nobody was bidding, not because anyone was pressing. The close came in at 38% of the range, off the low — sellers didn't push into the bell either. I said last week that a break of 395 on light volume is a shakeout, not a trend change. I'm not going to un-say it now that the break went my way. And last week's weekly bar showed 123% volume on a narrow range right at this level — that's absorption. Heavy buying there, then a slip below on the lightest volume of the run. That's the shape of a stop flush. So the short is a structure trade, not a VSA-confirmed one. That's fine. It just means tight stops and I want to see real volume on any continuation before I size up. The plan: I'll short the rejection, not chase it here. The zone is 395.51 up into the MTF cloud (@ripster47 EMA cloud) at 399–401. Targets 385, 382, then 380. 400 is the pivot for the long side. Reclaim it on a close and this whole break was a shakeout and I'm out of the way. All of it conditional on FOMC. Hawkish confirms the short, dovish flips it. I'd rather react to the print than pre-position into it.