This year, the monsoon has remained below normal across the country, with strengthening El Niño conditions adding to concerns. (File Photo)The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Monday that the Southwest Monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from Northwest India around September 19.The normal date for the monsoon’s withdrawal from Northwest India is September 17, with a standard deviation of four days. Last year, the retreat began on September 14.“Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some parts of west Rajasthan around September 19,” IMD said.Before the retreat begins, however, the region is likely to witness thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds.Also Read | One-third of India in severe rain deficit even as monsoon peters outThe weather activity is expected to be linked to a low-pressure system over north Gujarat, while adjoining areas of Rajasthan are likely to remain under monsoon influence for the next two to three days.The Met department has forecast rainfall over western Rajasthan until September 16, while monsoon activity is expected to continue over eastern Rajasthan until September 20. Widespread rainfall has also been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Punjab until September 18.This year, the monsoon has remained below normal across the country, and strengthening El Niño conditions have added to concerns. All-India monthly rainfall was 35.4 per cent below normal in June, followed by a 1 per cent surplus in July and a 13.8 per cent deficit in August. September has so far recorded a 15 per cent rainfall deficit.Story continues below this adAlso Read | Why food prices may rise and stay elevatedWith just a fortnight left in the four-month monsoon season, IMD rainfall data showed that nearly 43 per cent of the country remained rainfall deficient.The season is most likely to end with significantly below-average rainfall across much of the southern peninsular region. Other areas expected to record substantial deficits include Goa (-16 per cent), Haryana (-23 per cent), Punjab (-40 per cent), Bihar (-35 per cent), Rajasthan (-25 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (-42 per cent), Manipur (-42 per cent), Assam (-25 per cent) and Meghalaya (-59 per cent).The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to be an exception, with rainfall likely to remain closer to normal.