Goldman moving to October rather than December for the next hike tightens the near term calendar markets have to price around, and puts a live meeting risk squarely inside a window some had assumed the Fed would prefer to avoid given its closeness to the midterms. If other desks follow Goldman in pulling their own timelines forward, that would likely keep short end yields and the dollar supported into October, while adding to the case for a higher for longer rate path more broadly. The bigger shift here is arguably qualitative rather than quantitative: with Goldman abandoning the most dovish framing on the street, the range of outcomes priced into rates markets narrows toward the more hawkish end, which typically weighs on rate sensitive equity valuations and can pressure risk assets that had been leaning on a shallower tightening path.---Goldman just gave up on "one and done," and now it's the bank penciling in the soonest next move on the Fed's calendar.Summary:Goldman Sachs now expects a second 25bp Fed hike in October, dropping its prior call that September's hike would be the only one this yearThe shift puts Goldman ahead of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, both of which have been forecasting December for the next moveGoldman flagged three reasons Wednesday's meeting was more hawkish than expected: a 16 to 2 dot plot majority for at least one more 2026 hike with no dissents on the actual vote, an elevated median rate path through 2029, and a neutral rate estimate raised to 3.25% from 3.06%Chair Kevin Warsh's repeated framing of the hike as removing policy accommodation was read by Goldman as building the case for further tighteningThe revision narrows the gap between Goldman and the more hawkish banks, and raises the odds of a live October meeting some had assumed would be skipped due to its proximity to the midtermsGoldman Sachs has scrapped its one and done call on the Federal Reserve and now expects the FOMC to deliver a second 25 basis point rate hike in October, a reversal from its prior view that Wednesday's move would be the only increase this year. The shift marks one of the more notable changes in Wall Street's post meeting positioning, since it puts Goldman's timeline ahead of both JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, which have been pointing to December for a follow up move rather than October.Goldman's economists said Wednesday's meeting came across as more hawkish than they had anticipated in three distinct respects. First, a 16 to 2 majority of FOMC participants projected at least one more hike this year in the updated dot plot, and the actual rate decision itself carried no dissenting votes at all. Second, the median funds rate projection stayed notably elevated all the way through 2029, while the median estimate of the neutral rate, the level policymakers see as neither stimulative nor restrictive, rose to 3.25% from 3.06% in the prior projections. Third, Chair Kevin Warsh repeatedly characterized the hike during his remarks as having removed a degree of policy accommodation, a framing Goldman's team read as him actively building the case for further tightening rather than presenting Wednesday's move as a standalone, defensive step.Taken together, those three signals appear to have done more to shift Goldman's outlook than the headline rate decision itself, which had been fully priced in and matched the bank's own forecast going into the meeting. The change brings Goldman's near term rate path closer in line with the Fed's own median guidance, and narrows the gap that had opened up between Goldman's more dovish framing and the more hawkish calls already in place at rival banks. It also raises the prospect of a live October meeting, a timing some commentators had previously flagged as unlikely given its proximity to the November midterm elections, though Goldman's revised call suggests that consideration may carry less weight with the committee than had been assumed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.