Trump's comments to Axios add a fresh layer of uncertainty to an oil market already struggling to price the war's trajectory, echoing JP Morgan's own admission this week that it has no clear baseline view for crude. A resumption of major US combat operations against Iran would raise the risk of further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping, the scenario Saudi Arabia and Qatar are understood to have flagged when they helped persuade Trump to hold off in August. Conversely, any sign that Tuesday's meeting with Gulf leaders tilts toward renewed diplomacy could ease some of the risk premium currently built into oil prices, though traders are likely to treat that as a low probability outcome given Trump's repeated threats over recent months. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still below pre-war levels despite the increased US naval presence, any escalation risk keeps a floor under prices even as the broader market leans on demand destruction rather than supply fears alone.---Adam had the news on this earlier:Trump says he faces a “big decision” on whether to launch new attacks on IranI'm doing a ICYMI here ... Meanwhile:Another tanker struck in Strait of Hormuz as Iran missile threat widens warICYMI: JP Morgan sees oil market lacking a clear endgame six months into Iran war--- Trump says a big decision looms on whether to go back to war with Iran, Axios reports.Summary:Trump told Axios he is nearing a major decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran, calling it a genuine turning pointThe comments come ahead of a planned Tuesday meeting with leaders from six Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New YorkTrump held off on resuming major combat operations in early August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar warned Iran could retaliate against Saudi oil and gas facilities; since then the US has pursued a lower-key approach of sanctions, a naval blockade and efforts to reopen the Strait of HormuzUS officials say Trump needs to decide soon since the military cannot maintain its current holding pattern indefinitely, with force levels in the Middle East set to remain through year-endTrump said the naval blockade has stopped Iran from exporting oil and that Iran remains in direct contact with the US and still wants a dealThe White House is separately drafting a post-war strategy to contain Iran and expand Israeli-Arab normalisation, with Israel's October 27 election and the US midterms in November both weighing on the timelinePresident Trump told Axios on Thursday that he is approaching a critical juncture in the Iran war, weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks in an effort to bring the conflict to a close. Trump described the choice in stark terms, telling the outlet, "Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?" and adding that it was a major decision and that anything could happen.The comments come ahead of a planned meeting on Tuesday with leaders from six Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Axios reported that the meeting could shape the next phase of the war, including whether Washington pushes for renewed diplomacy or intensifies military action, and that Trump would need buy-in from his regional allies before resuming major combat operations. Trump said he wants to use the gathering to hear directly from allies about the war's next steps, and he declined to say whether he would decide on a path forward before or after November's midterm elections.Axios noted that Trump held off on resuming major combat in early August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar raised concerns that Iran would retaliate by striking Saudi oil and gas facilities. Since then, the US has pursued what the outlet described as a lower-key approach, suspending negotiations with Iran, launching a new sanctions campaign, maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian ports and focusing the military on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting oil flows. Tanker traffic through the strait has increased under the US presence but remains below pre-war levels, and oil prices are still elevated.US officials told Axios that Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have ordered the military to hold current force levels in the Middle East through the end of the year, keeping options open for a full return to combat, and that a decision is needed soon because the military cannot sustain its present holding pattern indefinitely. Trump said he is satisfied the naval blockade has stopped Iran from exporting oil, and that Iran remains in direct contact with Washington and still wants to reach a deal.Separately, Axios reported that the White House is drafting a post-war strategy aimed at containing Iran regionally while expanding normalisation between Israel and its neighbours, a plan still in its early stages that is meant to guide US Middle East policy through the remainder of Trump's term. Israel's October 27 election and the US midterms in November both loom over that planning. Asked whether he would meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York next week, Trump left the door open, saying only that he might. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.