PATRICIA COHEN2026年9月18日索马里的一片洋葱田。进口能源和化肥成本飙升可能压低非洲各地的收成并推高食品价格，最贫穷国家受冲击最重。 Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York TimesFor a while now, the global economy has been beating the odds.全球经济已经持续了一段时间的逆势而行。The energy shock prompted by the American and Israeli attacks on Iran in February set off the largest disruption of worldwide energy flows in history. Yet despite jumps in oil prices, widening conflict in the Middle East, fuel shortages and inflation pressures, the feared crash never came and most economies managed to muddle through.美国和以色列2月对伊朗的袭击引发能源冲击，导致史上最大规模的全球能源流动中断。然而，尽管油价飙升、中东冲突扩大、燃料短缺且通胀压力加剧，人们担心的崩溃并未出现，大多数经济体勉力支撑。But wiggle room is narrowing at the same time the outlook is darkening. Look at what has happened in just the last few days.但回旋余地正在变小，前景在恶化。看看过去几天发生的事。Attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut a vital pipeline. Houthi militia seized a strategic Red Sea island and a port city, which could further restrict shipping in the region. And proposed negotiations among Gulf nations fell apart. Oil prices have shot toward $110 a barrel.袭击迫使沙特阿拉伯关闭一条关键管道。胡塞武装夺取一个战略性的红海岛屿和一座港口城市，可能进一步限制该地区航运。海湾国家拟议的谈判破裂。油价已飙升至每桶110美元。The price spike has caused rolling blackouts, rationing and angry protests from Asia to Latin America. In the Philippines, fisherman docked their boats because they can’t afford fuel. In Bangladesh, power outages caused hourslong work stoppages at factories. In Guatemala, protesters burned tires and cars.价格飙升导致从亚洲到拉美的限电、物资配给和愤怒抗议。菲律宾渔民因加不起油而停止出海。孟加拉国停电导致持续数小时的工厂停工。危地马拉抗议者烧毁轮胎和汽车。Until now, some key moves to ease demand and bolster oil supplies helped blunt extreme price increases and acute shortages.迄今为止，一些缓解需求、增加石油供应的关键举措帮助减轻了价格极端上涨和严重短缺。“The No. 1 reason why crude oil prices and product prices have not been higher than they are is that China has cut its crude oil imports,” said David L. Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and Energy Department official.“原油和成品油价格没有涨得更高，首要原因是中国削减了原油进口，”前美国外交官、能源部官员戴维·L·戈德温说。南京的一座原油炼油厂。中国停止囤油，转而依靠自身库存，缓解了全球石油市场的压力。The world’s largest importer of oil, China stopped stockpiling oil and relied on its own inventories, easing pressure on the global oil market at a critical moment. It also reduced or withheld exports of products made from oil, like jet fuel, meaning it needed less crude oil.作为全球最大石油进口国，中国停止囤油，转而动用自身库存，在关键时刻缓解了全球石油市场压力。中国还减少或暂停出口航空煤油等石油制品，从而减少了原油需求。At the same time, the United States, Japan and countries across Europe dipped into their own reserves to keep prices from rising further.与此同时，美国、日本和欧洲各国动用自身储备，遏制价格进一步上涨。The measures helped. Even Asia — the destination for about 80 percent of Middle Eastern crude and liquefied natural gas exports — was largely able to procure supplies.这些措施奏效了。就连亚洲——约80%的中东原油和液化天然气出口的目的地——也基本能够获得供应。Such strategies can work for only so long, though.不过，此类策略只能奏效一时。Storage levels among the 38 members that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have dropped to their lowest levels in decades, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.美国能源信息署的数据显示，经济合作与发展组织38个成员国的石油库存已降至数十年来最低。And in the Gulf, alternate delivery routes, like Saudi’s East-West pipeline, are currently not operating.而在海湾地区，沙特东西管道等替代运输路线目前并未运行。“We’re going to be dealing with prices in the $80 to $100 a barrel level at least through 2027,” said Mr. Goldwyn. Higher prices for fuel and related products like fertilizer will further push up food and transportation costs.“至少到2027年，我们都要面对每桶80至100美元的油价，”戈德温说。燃料及化肥等相关产品涨价将进一步推高食品和运输成本。The disruption in energy shipping routes in the Middle East will mean higher inflation. “What’s happening is that we’ve got very low levels of inventories now, and there’s still no sign that the straits can be reopened,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.中东能源航运路线中断将意味着更高通胀。“眼下库存水平极低，而且仍无迹象显示海峡能重新开放，”凯投宏观集团首席经济学家尼尔·希林说。越南的一家工厂。亚洲经济体面临加速的通胀，预计今年将达到5.2%。The Asian Development Bank projects that inflation in the region will accelerate to 5.2 percent this year from 3.0 percent last year. In Europe, Britain and the United States, inflation is likely to hover in the 3.5 to 4 percent range until at least the middle of next year, Mr. Shearing said.亚洲开发银行预计，该地区今年通胀率将从去年的3.0%升至5.2%。希林说，在欧洲、英国和美国，通胀率至少在明年年中前可能维持在3.5%至4%之间。Worries over prices are putting pressure on central bankers to raise rates, which will make borrowing more expensive and slow economies. That would be a blow for a country like Germany, which has already been teetering on the edge of recession.对价格的担忧正迫使央行官员加息，这将推高借贷成本并拖累经济。对于已徘徊在衰退边缘的德国等国来说，这将是一记打击。Limited supplies of refined as well as crude petroleum from the Middle East are pushing up prices. Buffers are shrinking, the International Energy Agency warned last week, and the global refining system is “stretched to the limit.”中东成品油和原油供应有限，推高价格。国际能源署上周警告，缓冲库存正在萎缩，全球炼油系统“已绷到极限”。Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have contributed to the squeeze, forcing a cut in its refining capacity by roughly 30 percent over the next 18 months, according to the agency. Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports to the end of this month.该机构称，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂加剧了供应紧张，迫使俄炼油能力在未来18个月削减约30%。俄罗斯已将柴油出口禁令延长至本月底。The surge in diesel prices prompted President Trump this week to blame Ukraine and urge it to not target Russian refining facilities.柴油价格飙升促使特朗普总统本周指责乌克兰，并敦促其不要袭击俄罗斯炼油设施。莫斯科一座遭乌克兰无人机袭击的炼油厂，图片来自社交媒体。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击加剧了能源供应紧张。Mr. Goldwyn worries that rising prices may push Mr. Trump to ban diesel exports before the midterm elections in November. That would temporarily tamp down the price of diesel at home. But without foreign customers, he said, oil refiners are likely to reduce production, tightening global supplies.戈德温担心，价格上涨可能促使特朗普在11月中期选举前禁止柴油出口。这会暂时压低国内柴油价格。但他说，失去外国客户后，炼油商可能减产，从而收紧全球供应。An export ban would be particularly painful for Latin America, which is a big importer of American diesel.出口禁令对拉美尤其痛苦，因为该地区大量进口美国柴油。No region is immune.没有哪里能幸免。Persian Gulf economies are already reeling from the fallout of the Iran war. Qatar, a leading exporter of liquefied natural gas, is expected to see its economy shrink by 8.6 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank by 4.8 percent in the second quarter compared with the previous year.波斯湾经济体已因伊朗战争冲击而摇摇欲坠。国际货币基金组织预计，主要液化天然气出口国卡塔尔今年经济将萎缩8.6%。沙特经济第二季度同比萎缩4.8%。Global shocks often cause the biggest tremors in the poorest countries. Countries across Africa rely heavily on energy and fertilizer imports. Those high costs may end up driving down harvest yields and further pushing up food prices.全球冲击往往在最贫穷国家引发最大震荡。非洲各国严重依赖能源和化肥进口。高昂成本可能压低收成，进一步推高食品价格。Although most Asian countries have been able to avoid the kind of energy shortages and halts to production that were initially feared, they have had to pay much more for supplies.尽管大多数亚洲国家得以避免最初担心的能源短缺和生产停顿，但它们不得不为供应支付高得多的价格。大多数亚洲国家避免了此前担心的停电和生产停顿，但它们不得不为供应支付高得多的价格。Energy prices, of course, are not the only concern. Tariffs are raising costs for consumers and manufacturers. The World Food Program warned last month that weather conditions related to El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger. And government deficits have reached record highs.当然，能源价格并非唯一担忧。关税正推高消费者和制造商成本。世界粮食计划署上月警告，厄尔尼诺相关天气可能使约5000万人陷入严重饥饿。政府赤字也达到历史新高。Japan and Indonesia have spent billions of dollars on fuel subsidies to help consumers weather the price hikes. Concerns about countries’ ability to pay back growing debt levels have seeped into the bond market. In Japan this month, yields on 10-year government bonds rose to a three-decade high.日本和印尼已投入数十亿美元补贴燃料，帮助消费者应对涨价。对各国偿债能力的担忧已渗入债市。本月日本10年期国债收益率升至30年高点。Anxiety about rising risks have pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond — a benchmark that affects interest rates and investments around the world — to ulcer-inducing levels.对风险上升的焦虑已将10年期美国国债——影响全球利率和投资的基准——推至令人揪心的水平。Although the United States has been relatively insulated from the worst economic slaps, that could change.尽管美国相对不容易受到最严重的经济冲击，但这种情况可能改变。As Mr. Goldwyn, the former energy official, said, “at some point when all your trading partners are suffering from high prices and food is more expensive and transportation is more expensive, you can’t really escape the laws of economic gravity.”正如前能源官员戈德温所说，“当所有贸易伙伴都受困于高企的价格，食品和运输变得更贵时，你无法真正逃脱经济引力法则。”River Akira Davis自东京对本文有报道贡献。Patricia Cohen常驻伦敦，撰写与全球经济有关的新闻。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。