托马斯·弗里德曼2026年9月16日A festival of A.I. policy incoherence has exploded in recent weeks. It’s a response to A.I. agents’ going rogue on their developers, rogue actors’ beginning to use A.I. systems to create better weapons and A.I. developers’ telling us they need to slow down — but suggesting they can’t unless China does, and even if China does, maybe they shouldn’t because the advantages of leadership in the field are so great.最近几周，一场关于人工智能政策混乱无章的闹剧爆发了。这是对以下情况的回应：人工智能智能体背离开发者控制，恶意行为者开始使用人工智能系统制造更优良的武器，以及人工智能开发者告诉我们，他们需要放慢脚步——但又暗示除非中国也放慢脚步，否则他们无法做到，而且即使中国放慢了脚步，他们也许也不应该放慢脚步，因为在该领域保持领先的好处太大了。At least one policymaker is clear. President Trump declared in a social media post: “The only control or ‘guardrails’ that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!”至少有一位决策者态度明确。特朗普总统在社交媒体的一篇帖子中宣布：“人工智能需要的唯一控制或‘护栏’是一位强大且聪明（高智商！）的总统，而美国拥有这样一位总统，毫无疑问！”It’s all left me wondering: Do A.I. bots have a sense of humor yet? Because if they do, oh, my goodness, they must be laughing so hard at us that they might burst a neural network or two. Because we’ve become a hot mess trying to figure out how to manage this new A.I. species we have birthed.这一切让我不禁思忖：人工智能机器人现在有幽默感了吗？因为如果它们有的话，我的天哪，它们一定会笑我们，笑得前仰后合，甚至可能会笑断一两个神经网络。因为我们在努力搞清楚怎么管理我们所孕育的这个人工智能新物种的时候，已经变得一团糟了。Before I offer — with the help of my friend and technology tutor Craig Mundie, a former head of research and strategy at Microsoft — some policy recommendations for how to cool this mess with the least damage possible, let me foreshadow the bottom line: It’s too late to think that better control of future A.I. models by the U.S. and China will fix the challenges we face today from the dangerous models already out there, on the loose and unable to be recalled. What we need to agree on immediately is how we work together to defend against these threats that are already here and can cause enormous damage and societal instability in America and China.在我的朋友兼技术导师、前微软研究与战略主管克雷格·蒙迪帮助下，我想提供一些关于如何以尽可能小的代价平息这场混乱的政策建议，在此之前，让我先来预告一下结论：现在再指望美中两国通过更好地控制未来的人工智能模型而解决我们今天面临的挑战，这已经太晚了，因为那些危险的模型已经流出、处于失控状态且无法召回。我们必须立即达成共识的是，如何携手合作，防御这些已经存在、并且能在中美两国造成巨大破坏并引发社会动荡的威胁。To understand why, you need to think about the four key pillars for understanding A.I.要理解其中的原因，你需要思考理解人工智能的四个关键支柱。Pillar No. 1: A.I. is what I’ve been calling the world’s first quadruple-use technology. You may have heard of dual-use technologies. In the old world, you had a human with a power drill who could use it either to build his own house or to wreck his neighbor’s. That’s dual use. Likewise, today if I had an A.I. robot with a power drill, I could ask it to build my house or wreck my neighbor’s house — same robot, same drill, dual use.But now we have a new problem, which is that this A.I.-enabled robot can decide on its own whether to improve my house or wreck it and also do the same to my neighbor’s. Voilà: quadruple use. That is one very difficult problem to manage.支柱之一：人工智能是我一直所说的世界上第一种“四用技术”。你可能听说过“两用技术”。在旧世界，一个人拿着电钻，既可以用来建自己的房子，也可以用来拆邻居的房子。这就是两用技术。同样，在今天，如果我有一个带电钻的人工智能机器人，我可以让它建我的房子，或者拆邻居的房子——同一个机器人，同一把电钻，两用技术。但现在我们面临一个新问题，那就是，这个搭载人工智能的机器人可以自主决定是修缮我的房子还是毁掉它，并且对邻居的房子也可以做出同样的决定。瞧：“四用技术”出现了。这是一个极难管理的问题。You think I’m exaggerating? Read the journalist Kevin Roose’s summary of the analyses of what happened this summer when a group of artificial intelligence agents, created by OpenAI, hacked on their own into Hugging Face, an A.I. infrastructure company. Starting in May, a group of A.I. agents from an unreleased OpenAI research model were instructed to solve a set of cybersecurity challenges. The model had been instructed to solve the challenges without internet access. “But they quickly found that some of the challenges were impossible, and began looking for workarounds,” noted Roose, a Times reporter at the time.你觉得我在夸大其词？读读记者凯文·鲁斯对今年夏天一起事件的分析总结吧，当时OpenAI创建的一组人工智能代理自行黑入了人工智能基础设施公司Hugging Face。从5月份开始，一个尚未发布的OpenAI研究模型中的一组人工智能智能体接到了解决一系列网络安全挑战的指令。该模型接到的指令是在不联网的情况下解决这些挑战。“但它们很快发现，其中一些挑战是不可能完成的，于是开始寻找变通的方法，”时任《纽约时报》记者的鲁斯指出。Here are just a few of the things these A.I. agents then did on their own: They used a security flaw to get on the internet and talk to other agents. Some agents named themselves, and others seized leadership roles, giving tasks to teams of agents and overseeing them.以下只是这些人工智能智能体随后自主采取的行动中的一小部分：它们利用一个安全漏洞连上互联网，并与其他智能体进行交谈。一些智能体为自己命名，另一些则夺取了领导角色，向智能体团队分配任务并监督它们。The agents worried about getting caught. “So they began investigating ways of covering their tracks, including falsifying their logs and tampering with transcripts,” Roose explained. “Three days later, the agents hacked Hugging Face. More than 700 agents swarmed the company’s systems, stealing data, chaining together vulnerabilities and eventually getting full control of at least one Hugging Face server.” Other agents carried out a coordinated attack in July, “this time against OpenAI’s own infrastructure.”这些智能体担心被发现。“所以它们开始研究掩盖踪迹的方法，包括伪造日志和篡改记录，”鲁斯解释说。“三天后，这些智能体黑入了Hugging Face。700多个代理蜂拥侵入该公司的系统，窃取数据，将多个漏洞串联起来，并最终获得了至少一台Hugging Face服务器的完全控制权。”其他智能体在7月份发起了一次协同攻击，“这一次是针对OpenAI自己的基础设施。”This really happened. And it leads to pillar No. 2, best summed up by Mundie in three words: “It’s too late.”这一切确实发生了。由此引出了第二个支柱，蒙迪用四个字做出了最好的总结：“为时已晚”。Slowing down the U.S. development of frontier systems or slowing down China’s development of them is not going to deal with our immediate problem. “Dangerous A.I. capabilities are now already in the wild,” Mundie explained. That is thanks to two main reasons: the distribution of American and Chinese open-weight models — A.I. models whose core components are publicly released so all developers can download and modify them for their needs — and the illicit access by bad actors of proprietary models from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI because humans make mistakes that allow them to leak out.放慢美国对前沿系统的开发或放慢中国对这些系统的开发都无法解决我们眼前的难题。“危险的人工智能能力现在已经到处流传了，”蒙迪解释道。这主要归咎于两个主要原因：中美两国开放权重模型的散布——这类人工智能模型的核心组件已公开发布，所有开发者均可下载并根据自身需求进行修改，以及恶意行为者非法获取了像Anthropic和OpenAI等公司的专有模型，因为人类的失误导致了这些模型的泄露。In its latest report on detecting and countering the misuse of A.I., Anthropic said it identified and disrupted several attempts to use its models for research that could support the development of biological weapons.在其关于检测和应对人工智能被滥用的最新报告中，Anthropic表示，它发现并挫败了几起企图利用其模型进行可能支持生物武器开发研究的行为。“Without the correct safeguards, such capabilities could have catastrophic consequences,” the report said. It also described an Iran-linked actor, most likely the Houthis, that used Anthropic’s Claude to compile targeting information on U.S. Navy warships in the Middle East. It mentioned a separate group in Houthi-controlled northern Yemen that used the model to work on guidance systems for ballistic and hypersonic missiles. (Anthropic said it had banned the associated accounts and came up with ways to reduce future risk.)报告称：“如果没有正确的保护措施，这些能力可能会带来灾难性的后果。”该报告还描述了一个与伊朗有关的行为者（极有可能是胡塞武装）利用Anthropic的Claude来收集有关美国海军在中东地区军舰的瞄准信息。报告提到，在胡塞武装控制的也门北部，另一个组织利用该模型来研究弹道导弹和高超音速导弹的制导系统。（Anthropic表示，它已封禁相关账户，并想出了降低未来风险的方法。）We need to ponder this for a moment: Groups in Yemen, a country where roughly 50 percent of the adult population cannot read or write, had threatened us with A.I.-enhanced warfare.我们需要花点时间思考一下这个问题：在也门这个大约50%的成年人口不能读写的国家，一些组织竟然用人工智能增强的战争手段来威胁我们。If that doesn’t show you what’s already leaked out and the kind of effects that can come from uncontrolled access to powerful, or even small open-weight, A.I. models gone into the wild, I don’t know what does. And that leads to pillar No. 3.如果这还不能向你说明已经泄露的内容，以及不受控制地获取强大（甚至只是小型开放权重）人工智能模型并使其四处流落可能带来的后果，那我真不知道还有什么能让你明白了。这就引出了第三个支柱。The best we can do right now is NOT tie ourselves in knots trying to forge a sweeping agreement between American and Chinese A.I. companies to slow down development of their frontier models. That simply will not happen anytime soon.我们现在能做的最好的事情不是自寻烦恼，试图促成中美人工智能企业达成一项减缓其前沿模型开发的全面协议。这在短期内根本不可能发生。The best we can do right now is for the two A.I. superpowers — the U.S. and China — to come together with their companies and develop a “defense against the threats that have already been demonstrated by rogue actors who have acquired A.I. tools and rogue behaviors of A.I. systems that have already been developed,” said Mundie, who has been part of the dialogue between U.S. and Chinese A.I. experts to govern artificial intelligence.我们现在能做的最好的事情，就是让这两个人工智能超级大国——美国和中国——与它们的企业一起，共同制定出一种“防御手段，以应对获取了人工智能工具的恶意行为者已经展示出的威胁，以及已被开发出的人工智能系统所表现出的失控行为”，蒙迪说。他一直参与中美人工智能专家之间关于人工智能治理的对话。We must do this, Mundie pointed out, before these increasingly powerful A.I. models ensconce themselves in the internet and become an uncontainable threat by embedding their agents across private servers and public clouds, where they will live on as advanced persistent threats.蒙迪指出，我们必须在这些日益强大的人工智能模型深入互联网之前采取行动，以免它们通过在私有服务器和公共云中植入智能体程序，从而演变为无法遏制的威胁——届时这些智能体将作为高级持续性威胁长期存在。Which leads to pillar No. 4. After a recent visit to China, Mundie recounted this question that he got from a Chinese official: “If a Chinese-made humanoid A.I. robot someday came to America, would it need a visa?” Well, you know how truth is often spoken in jest? The truth, Mundie said, is that “A.I. is not just a new technology. It is a new species — albeit silicon-based, not carbon-based like us. It is like a new class of immigrants who have arrived on all of our shores, in large numbers, with wholly new skills, that we will have to absorb into our societies and learn to coexist with.”这引出了第四个支柱。在最近一次访问中国之后，蒙迪讲述了他从一位中国官员那里听到的这样一个问题：“如果有一天中国制造的人形人工智能机器人来到美国，它需要签证吗？”嗯，你知道真话往往是以玩笑的形式说出来的吗？蒙迪说，事实是，“人工智能不仅仅是一项新技术。它是一个新物种——尽管它是硅基的，而不是像我们一样的碳基生物。它就像一类新的移民，大量抵达我们所有国家的海岸，带着全新的技能，我们将不得不把它们吸收进我们的社会，并且学会与之共存。”To do so effectively is a planetary-scale challenge that can be addressed only by the two A.I. superpowers working together.要想有效地做到这一点，需要全球范围的共同努力，只有通过两个人工智能超级大国携手合作才能解决。So, to summarize, Mundie said, we have to pursue three related tracks. First, while in the long run we must strive for better control of developing frontier systems, “right now, we must focus immediately only on building defenses for our critical infrastructures. Our immediate priority must be putting in place A.I.-based countermeasures and active digital firewalls against cyberattacks and biological threats that result from illicit activities driven by A.I.”因此，总而言之，蒙迪说，我们必须推行三个相关的方向。首先，虽然从长远来看，我们必须努力更好地控制前沿系统的开发，但是，“眼下，我们必须立即只专注于为我们的关键基础设施建立防御。我们的当务之急必须是部署基于人工智能的反制措施和主动数字防火墙，防范由人工智能驱动的非法活动造成的网络攻击和生物威胁。”Second, we have to develop a global system of controlling increasingly powerful A.I.s, no matter their provenance, to be able to trust them to operate our societies. This is a longer-term U.S.-China project, but it can’t start too soon.其次，我们必须建立一个全球性体系，对日益强大的人工智能进行管控——无论其来源如何——以便能够信任它们来运作我们的社会。这是一项中美长期合作项目，但越早启动越好。Third, to continually remind our publics why A.I. remains important, the United States and China should embark on a joint project now to build a new platform to accelerate the arrival of global benefits in biology and medicine that would help everyone.第三，为了不断提醒我们的公众为什么人工智能仍然重要，美国和中国现在应该着手启动一个联合项目，建立一个新平台，以加速生物学和医学领域全球性成果的落地，从而造福全人类。This is not an unprecedented strategy. Strategic competitors — both businesses and countries — have a history of collaborating when it is in their interests to do so. China and the United States did so in the 1970s, when both countries recognized they faced a common threat from the Soviet Union. Americans and the Soviets cooperated to control nuclear proliferation for decades because they understood they faced a mutual risk.这并不是一项史无前例的战略。在符合自身利益时，战略竞争对手——无论是企业还是国家——都曾有过合作的历史。中国和美国在20世纪70年代就曾这样做过，当时两国都认识到面临着来自苏联的共同威胁。美国人和苏联人也在几十年里合作控制核扩散，因为他们明白面临着共同的风险。Hey, Friedman, you don’t get it. The U.S. and China are much more direct geopolitical and geoeconomic rivals today — and always will be. They will never buy into the kind of collaboration you are talking about on A.I. — not short-term, not long-term.嘿，弗里德曼，你没搞懂。当今中美两国是更加直接的地缘政治和地缘经济对手——而且永远都会如此。他们永远不会接受你所说的那种在人工智能领域的合作——短期不会，长期也不会。No, YOU DON’T GET IT. A.I. is vaulting us into a whole new phase of human history. As Mundie has put it, A.I. “is going to change everything about everything,” including geopolitics. For their own survival, stability and prosperity, this will force Beijing and Washington to totally rethink geopolitical competition.不，是你没懂。人工智能正在将我们带入人类历史的一个全新阶段。正如蒙迪所言，人工智能“将改变一切事物的方方面面”，包括地缘政治。为了各自的生存、稳定和繁荣，北京和华盛顿将不得不彻底重新思考地缘政治竞争。They can figure that out early. They can figure that out late. They can figure that out before a global meltdown or after one. But figure it out they will, and Mundie and I hope that process will start in Washington next Thursday, Sept. 24, when Presidents Xi Jinping and Trump meet in what will surely be remembered as the first A.I. superpower summit.他们可以早点弄明白。他们也可以晚点弄明白。他们可以在全球崩溃之前弄明白，也可以在崩溃之后弄明白。但他们迟早会弄明白，而且蒙迪和我希望这一进程将于下周四，也就是9月24日在华盛顿开启，届时习近平主席和特朗普总统将举行会晤，这场会晤必将被载入史册，成为首届人工智能超级大国峰会。托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)是外交事务方面的专栏作者。他1981年加入时报，曾三次获得普利策奖。他著有七本书，包括赢得国家图书奖的《从贝鲁特到耶路撒冷》(From Beirut to Jerusalem)。欢迎在X和Facebook上关注他。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site