REBECCA F. ELLIOTT, KEITH BRADSHER2026年9月18日中国九江的一家炼油厂。传统上，掌握主动权的一直是沙特阿拉伯和美国等石油出口国，而非中国等进口国。 Keith Bradsher/The New York TimesOne of the most important lessons from the war with Iran is one that few saw coming.很少有人能预见到与伊朗的这场战争带来的一个重要教训。The conflict has made clear that China, which has long been highly vulnerable to oil supply shocks, has managed to transform that weakness into a surprising source of geopolitical power. The country made that big shift by stockpiling huge amounts of oil, building extra oil refining capacity and investing in coal and other alternatives. And in the early months of the war, it flexed that power by cutting off supplies of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to neighboring countries.这场冲突清楚地表明，长期极易受到石油供应冲击影响的中国已设法将这一弱点转化为令人惊讶的地缘政治力量源泉。中国通过储备巨量石油、建设额外炼油产能以及投资煤炭和其他替代能源实现了这一重大转变。在战争爆发的最初几个月里，中国通过切断对邻国的航空燃油、汽油和柴油供应，展示了这种力量。That has big implications for the global energy industry, where oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the United States — not importers like China — have traditionally held most of the cards.这对全球能源行业产生了重大影响。传统上，在该行业掌握主动权的一直是沙特阿拉伯和美国等石油生产国，而非中国等进口国。Already dominant in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, China now appears to have an unparalleled position across the energy landscape. As a result, the threat that a foreign power would restrict the country’s access to oil may no longer deter leaders in Beijing from taking aggressive steps like invading or blockading Taiwan, former U.S. officials said.中国已经在太阳能电池板、电池和电动汽车领域占据主导地位，如今似乎在整个能源格局中也拥有了无与伦比的地位。前美国官员表示，外国势力限制中国获取石油的威胁可能不再能阻止北京领导层采取诸如入侵或封锁台湾等激进举措。“If they come to feel that in this domain, they are less vulnerable than they and many others may have assessed previously, that is a profound and important shift in one of the key inputs to how China makes decisions about its global strategy,” said Julian Gewirtz, a former White House and State Department official who worked on China issues in the Biden administration.“如果他们开始觉得，在这一领域，自己已经不再像他们以及其他人曾经评估的那么脆弱，中国的全球战略决策的一个关键考量因素就发生了深刻且重要的转变，”拜登政府负责中国事务的前白宫和国务院官员朱利安·格维尔茨表示。China’s massive oil reserves and refining capacity, paired with its ability to run its economy on a variety of energy sources, allowed the country to slash oil purchases by 23 percent in the first six months of the war with Iran compared with the same period the year before, customs data show. Other countries that rely heavily on crude oil from the Middle East didn’t have those options and were forced to use less energy or pay much more for it.海关数据显示，凭借庞大的石油储备和炼油产能，加上利用多种能源维持经济运转的能力，中国在伊朗战争爆发的前六个月内将石油采购量同比削减了23%。其他严重依赖中东原油的国家没有这些选择，被迫减少能源使用或支付更高昂的费用。China’s ability to throttle oil imports caught nearly everyone in the oil industry by surprise. And it’s a big reason crude oil prices have not risen nearly as much as most energy executives and analysts thought they would once Iran severely restricted the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. As of late August, crude oil cost roughly $10 a barrel less than it would have had China continued buying at prewar levels, according to Daan Struyven, who leads oil research for Goldman Sachs.中国节流石油进口的能力令石油业内几乎所有人感到意外。这也是伊朗严格限制船只通过霍尔木兹海峡后，原油价格并未如大多数能源高管和分析师预期的那样大幅上涨的一个重要原因。高盛石油研究主管达安·斯特鲁伊文表示，截至8月下旬，相比中国若继续保持战前采购水平的情况，原油价格每桶低了约10美元。“This is a power that nobody thought China had,” said Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Going forward, it’s going to be really interesting to see: What does China do with this newfound power?”“这是一种没人想到中国会拥有的力量，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心高级研究员埃丽卡·道恩斯表示，“展望未来，看看中国将如何运用这种新获得的力量将是一件非常有趣的事情。”Next week’s scheduled meeting between President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, at the White House, may provide some clues.下周特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平计划在白宫举行的会晤可能会提供一些线索。China’s actions, even in just the past few months, suggest it will not be shy about using energy as a political tool. The country depends heavily on foreign crude oil, but it is one of the world’s biggest oil refiners. And early in the Iran war, the country ordered severe restrictions on exports of refined fuels like gasoline and diesel, both to conserve domestic supplies and to punish countries at odds with China’s foreign policy.即使仅仅通过过去几个月的行动，中国也表明其在将能源作为政治工具方面不会有所顾忌。中国严重依赖外国原油，但也是全球最大的炼油国之一。在伊朗战争初期，中国下令对汽油和柴油等成品油出口实施严格限制，这既旨在保障国内供应，也意在惩罚与中国外交政策相左的国家。中国之所以具有独特的影响力，是因为其石油购买量巨大，且其政府能够施加民主国家决策者所缺乏的那种控制。What little China did export this spring, when supplies were especially tight, went mainly to countries that maintain close ties to Beijing, like Vietnam and Thailand. Australia and the Philippines, which have been at odds with China because of its territorial claims in the South China Sea, were among those that lost out. Such actions echo the restrictions that China has placed on exporting rare-earth metals used in magnets and computer chips.今年春季供应尤为紧张之际，中国极其有限的出口主要流向了越南和泰国等与北京保持密切关系的国家。因南海领土主张而与中国产生分歧的澳大利亚和菲律宾则未能获得供应。此类行动呼应了中国此前对用于磁体和电脑芯片的稀土金属实施的出口限制。China resumed wider exports of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel in early July. But the last shipments of Iranian oil, sent before the United States imposed a blockade, now seem to have arrived at small refineries in China that operate separately from state-owned giants, said Tom Reed, a longtime specialist in China’s oil industry at Argus Media, a commodity pricing firm in London. He warned that China might reimpose a ban on fuel exports soon. Taking yet another source of diesel off the market could cause a further jump in prices, which are at a record of $6.40 a gallon in the United States.中国在7月初恢复了更广泛的航空燃油、汽油和柴油出口。不过，伦敦大宗商品定价机构阿格斯资深中国石油行业专家汤姆·里德表示，在美国实施封锁前发出的最后一批伊朗石油如今似乎已抵达独立于国有巨头运营的中国小型炼油厂。他警告称，中国可能很快会重新实施燃料出口禁令。若市场上再少一个柴油来源，可能会导致价格进一步飙升，目前美国柴油价格已达到创纪录的每加仑6.40美元。China’s sway over the crude oil market is different from that of oil-producing countries because China imports more than it produces. The country tends to reduce oil price volatility, lifting prices when it is stocking up — as it was last year — and easing them when it is not, as has happened since the war started, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote recently.中国对原油市场的影响力与产油国不同，因为其进口量大于生产量。高盛分析师最近写道，中国倾向于平抑油价波动：在建立储备时（如去年）推高油价，而在不储备时（如战争爆发以来）则使油价回落。China is uniquely influential because it is such a big buyer and its autocratic government exerts the kind of control that policymakers in democratic countries lack. The extent of Beijing’s sway is becoming clear as fractures develop in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, an oil producers’ cartel that has long been the most powerful force in the oil market.中国之所以具有独特的影响力是因为其购买量巨大，且其政府能够施加民主国家决策者所缺乏的那种控制力。随着长期主导石油市场的产油国卡特尔——石油输出国组织——内部出现裂痕，北京方面影响力的广度正变得日益清晰。“Have they fully wrested control? No,” Dr. Downs said of China. “But are they a force for OPEC to reckon with? Yes.”“他们完全夺取控制权了吗？并没有，”道恩斯在谈到中国时表示，“但他们是一股让欧佩克不得不重视的力量吗？是的。”China’s steep drop in oil imports this year reflects two main changes. The country is no longer stockpiling oil and has begun using some reserves. And its refineries have cut back sharply on turning oil into gasoline, diesel and other fuels.中国今年石油进口量的锐减反映出两大变化。该国不再补充石油储备，并已开始动用部分储备；同时，其炼油厂也大幅削减了将石油转化为汽油、柴油及其他燃料的产能。That is partly because Chinese demand for oil has weakened so much that consumption most likely peaked last year, ahead of forecasts, Sinopec, the country’s biggest refiner, has said. Electric vehicles now make up around 14 percent of the passenger cars on the road in China, a large enough share that the country used 1.5 million barrels a day less oil in the second quarter than it would have with only gasoline or diesel cars, trucks and buses, according to the International Energy Agency. That shaved more than 1 percent off global oil demand.这部分是因为中国对石油的需求严重疲软。正如中国最大的炼油企业中国石化所言，该国的石油消费很可能已在去年提前达峰。国际能源署的数据显示，电动汽车目前约占中国道路上乘用车保有量的14%，相比只有燃油汽车、卡车和公交车的情况，这一比例令该国第二季度的日均石油消耗量减少了150万桶。这削减了全球逾1%的石油需求。电动汽车使得该国第二季度日均石油消耗量比仅有燃油汽车的情况减少了150万桶。China also has a robust high-speed rail system and the ability, not widely shared by other countries, to use coal, rather than oil, to make chemicals.中国还拥有发达的高铁网络，以及利用煤炭而非石油生产化学品的能力，这在其他国家中并不多见。The precise mix of tools China has used to reduce oil imports has been the subject of intense debate because Beijing discloses very little. “I try to follow every little piece of data, and all of it is conflicting and all of it is maddening,” said Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher.由于北京方面披露的信息极少，中国用于减少石油进口的具体工具组合一直是激烈辩论的焦点。“我试图追踪每一条细微的数据，但所有数据都相互矛盾，令人抓狂，”石油市场研究员罗里·约翰斯顿表示。China recognized the value of establishing government oil reserves relatively late, after becoming a net oil importer in 1993. The United States and others set up large reserves after the energy crises of the 1970s.1993年成为石油净进口国后，中国较晚才认识到建立政府石油储备的价值。相比之下，美国等国在20世纪70年代的能源危机后便建立了大规模储备。China caught up quickly, however.然而，中国追赶得很快。“Every effort must be made to conserve and substitute oil, accelerate the exploration and development of oil and natural gas, actively utilize overseas resources, and establish a reserve system for oil,” China’s premier at the time, Zhu Rongji, told the country’s legislature in 2001.2001年，时任中国国务院总理朱镕基在全国人大会议上表示：“必须千方百计节约和替代石油，加快石油和天然气勘探与开发，积极利用国外资源，并尽快建立石油等战略资源的储备制度。”That energy security strategy was motivated partly by fears that the U.S. or Indian navies could block oil shipments from getting to China from the Middle East through the Strait of Malacca, a small channel between Indonesia and Malaysia.这一能源安全战略在一定程度上源于一种担忧：美国或印度海军可能会封锁马六甲海峡（印尼和马来西亚之间的一条狭窄水道），从而阻止中东石油运往中国。Mr. Xi has maintained those priorities, overseeing the growth of stockpiles that now represent roughly a third of known oil inventories worldwide.中国国家主席习近平延续了这些优先事项，并推动了石油储备的增长。目前，中国的石油储备约占全球已知石油库存的三分之一。Low interest rates triggered by a severe housing market crisis since 2021 facilitated the recent buying spree by Beijing and its state-backed oil companies. When interest rates are high, the costs for buying and storing oil are steep. Unlike bonds or dividend-paying stocks, oil does not generate income unless it is sold. But when interest rates are very low, governments and companies see little difference between holding cash and holding commodities like oil.2021年房地产市场严重危机引发的低利率环境为北京方面及其国有石油公司近期的疯狂采购提供了便利。在利率高企时，购买和储存石油的成本十分高昂。与债券或派息股票不同，石油除非出售否则无法产生收益。但当利率极低时，政府和企业会认为持有现金与持有石油等大宗商品之间几乎没有区别。Among the big questions now, with the main global oil price hovering around $103 a barrel, is how much China will buy in the coming months, as well as how much of that crude it will turn around and sell in the form of diesel and other fuels. Oil imports climbed 6 percent in August from July but remained well below prewar levels.如今，随着全球主要油价在每桶103美元左右徘徊，关键问题之一是中国在未来几个月将购买多少石油，以及其中有多少原油会被转化为柴油及其他燃料出售。8月份的石油进口量环比增长了6%，但仍远低于战前水平。“Think about how much geopolitical influence Saudi Arabia has had over the decades because of its ability to modulate production,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, a deputy national security adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan under President George W. Bush. “If China has that ability on the demand side, then they become an actor that the U.S. and others will go to and ask them for that behavior in exchange for potentially something else.”“想想几十年来，沙特阿拉伯凭借调节产量的能力拥有了多大的地缘政治影响力，”曾在乔治·W·布什总统任内负责伊拉克和阿富汗事务的前副国家安全顾问梅根·奥沙利文表示。“如果中国在需求端具备了这种能力，就会成为一个美国及其他国家主动寻求合作的行为体，他们会以其他潜在利益作为交换，请求中方采取相关行动。”Ruoxin Zhang和Murphy Zhao对本文有研究贡献。Rebecca F. Elliott为《纽约时报》报道能源新闻。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site