Bullock: RBA weighing whether policy is tight enough as oil pressures build

Wait 5 sec.

Bullock's Q&A comments read as a clear extension of her earlier committee testimony, where she said upside inflation risks flagged in August are now materialising, and they push the tone further toward a hike at the September 28-29 meeting. The explicit "higher for longer" framing on oil, paired with her comment that businesses are now more inclined to pass on cost increases, speaks directly to the pass-through risk the RBA has been watching closely, while her remark that the Board is thinking about whether policy is tight enough is about as direct a signal as a sitting Governor gives outside a post-meeting statement. Her characterisation of the housing price falls as not that significant removes a potential reason to hold off tightening further, since a softer housing market has previously been cited as a channel through which past hikes are working. Taken together, these comments support the roughly 70 to 75% probability already priced for a further 25 basis point increase, and arguably nudge it higher.---Bullock is now openly asking whether RBA policy is tight enough, and that's about as clear a hike signal as it gets.Summary:RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the world is now in a period of higher for longer oil prices, adding to the inflation risks she flagged earlier in the day to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on EconomicsShe said businesses are now more inclined to pass on cost increases, a pass-through dynamic the RBA has repeatedly flagged as a risk to keeping inflation containedBullock said the recent drop in housing prices is not that significant in the broader scheme of things, downplaying a factor that might otherwise argue for caution on further tighteningShe said the Board is thinking about whether it has a tight enough policy setting, one of the clearest hints yet of a further hikeThe comments follow her committee testimony earlier Thursday, in which she said upside inflation risks flagged in the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy are now materialisingThe RBA's next decision falls on September 28-29, with a further 25 basis point hike already priced at around 70 to 75%Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock struck a notably firmer tone in wire comments on Thursday evening, building on the message she delivered earlier in the day to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Bullock said the world is now in a period of higher for longer oil prices, a characterisation that goes beyond her committee remarks that upside inflation risks flagged in August are materialising, and points to a central bank increasingly convinced that energy-driven price pressure is not a temporary shock.Bullock also said businesses are now more inclined to pass on cost increases, a comment that speaks directly to the pass-through dynamic she and her colleagues have repeatedly flagged as the mechanism through which an oil price shock can turn into more persistent, broad-based inflation. In her committee testimony, Bullock had said the RBA's business liaison program was already hearing reports of firms passing on higher input costs, describing it as an expected but closely watched development that needed to remain contained rather than becoming embedded in ongoing price and wage decisions. Thursday evening's comment suggests that containment is looking harder to achieve.On the housing market, Bullock played down the significance of recent price falls, saying the drop is not that big in the scheme of things. That comment removes what might otherwise have been read as a note of caution on further tightening, since a softening housing market has previously been cited as one of the channels through which earlier rate increases are working their way through the economy. By characterising the falls as modest, Bullock leaves less room for an argument that the RBA should pause to let existing tightening do more of the work.Most directly, Bullock said the Board is thinking about whether it has a tight enough policy setting, a remark that leaves little ambiguity about the direction of the debate inside the RBA ahead of its next meeting. Combined with her committee testimony earlier the same day, in which she said the Board's task is to determine whether the tightening delivered so far will be sufficient to return inflation to target within a reasonable time, the cumulative message from Thursday points squarely toward further tightening. The RBA's Monetary Policy Board meets next on September 28-29, where a further 25 basis point increase is currently priced at around 70 to 75%, a probability Thursday's comments do little to challenge. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.