Fundamental Market Analysis for September 18, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004The euro ends the week under pressure after a notable decline against the dollar. The main factor for the market remains the divergence in monetary policy expectations. The Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.75–4.00%, and most of its officials allowed for another move by the end of the year. There is currently no comparable fresh signal in favor of tightening ECB policy. Support for the dollar comes not only from the Fed's decision but also from the harder tone of the accompanying signals. The regulator cited persistent inflation and signs of strengthening of the US economy. Although yields on long-term US bonds have retreated, the likelihood of continuing the rate hike cycle maintains the attractiveness of dollar assets and limits the recovery of the euro. Thus, the advantage remains with the American currency. The Fed's decision has already caused part of the EUR/USD decline, so further movement may be less sharp than the initial reaction. However, the lack of a strong local support factor for the euro and the persisting difference in rate expectations leave the pair vulnerable to further declines during the current session. Trading idea: SELL 1.14810, SL 1.15110, TP 1.14060