XAUUSD: FOMC May Decide the 4,255 Break GoldOANDA:XAUUSDOwen_SteeleXAUUSD: FOMC May Decide the 4,255 Break Market Context Gold remains under pressure near multi-week lows as traders wait for the key two-day FOMC policy meeting. The market is not giving buyers much confidence here. Higher Fed rate expectations, inflation concerns, firm Treasury yields, and geopolitical risk are still supporting the US Dollar. That keeps gold limited, especially because gold does not offer yield and usually struggles when the USD and yields stay strong. The important point is this: gold is not just moving sideways. It is still trading inside a descending structure, and every recovery attempt remains weak until buyers reclaim the key resistance zones above. Technical Structure Gold is currently trading around 4,290 after failing to build a meaningful recovery above 4,300. The chart still shows a clear bearish channel. Price continues to form lower highs, and the latest rebound is still trapped below the descending trendline. This tells us that sellers are still controlling the structure. The nearest key area is 4,255 - 4,285. This is the current liquidity and decision zone. If gold holds this area, a short-term recovery may appear before FOMC volatility expands. But if 4,255 breaks cleanly, sellers may push price deeper toward 4,220 and 4,200. Above current price, 4,365 - 4,400 is the nearest resistance zone. This area overlaps with the LTF Bearish OB, making it an important sell reaction zone if gold rebounds. Higher up, 4,410 - 4,440 remains the bearish mitigation zone and internal liquidity area. As long as gold trades below this structure, any recovery can still be treated as corrective. Key Levels Current Price: 4,290 Key Liquidity / Decision Zone: 4,255 - 4,285 Immediate Downside Target: 4,220 - 4,200 Nearest Resistance: 4,365 - 4,400 Bearish Mitigation Zone: 4,410 - 4,440 Buy-Side Liquidity / Supply: 4,465 - 4,490 HTF Bearish OB / Major Premium POI: 4,590 - 4,620 Bullish Recovery: Above 4,400 Bearish Continuation: Below 4,255 Trading Plan Primary Sell Scenario Entry: 4,365 - 4,400 after bearish confirmation SL: Above 4,425 TP: 4,300 / 4,285 / 4,255 Condition: Price rebounds into the LTF Bearish OB but fails to break above the descending structure. A rejection from this zone would keep sellers in control. Breakdown Sell Scenario Entry: Below 4,255 after breakdown and retest SL: Above 4,285 TP: 4,220 / 4,200 / 4,180 Condition: Gold loses the key decision zone and fails to reclaim it. This would confirm stronger downside continuation, especially if FOMC strengthens the USD further. Buy Reaction Scenario Entry: 4,255 - 4,285 after strong bullish confirmation SL: Below 4,230 TP: 4,320 / 4,365 / 4,400 Condition: Buyers must show a clean reaction from the liquidity zone. This is only a short-term recovery setup, not a full bullish reversal unless gold reclaims 4,400 with strength. Bullish Recovery Scenario Entry: Above 4,400 after breakout and retest SL: Below 4,365 TP: 4,440 / 4,465 / 4,490 Condition: Gold must break above the LTF Bearish OB and hold above 4,400. Only then does the short-term bearish pressure begin to weaken. Overall Bias Gold remains bearish while price stays below 4,365 - 4,400. The current market is sitting near a dangerous decision zone. Buyers may try to defend 4,255 - 4,285, but the structure still belongs to sellers until gold breaks back above 4,400. If 4,255 breaks, the next downside leg may open toward 4,220 and 4,200. If buyers defend the zone, a corrective rebound toward 4,365 - 4,400 is possible, but that area may still attract sellers again. Best approach: do not chase price before FOMC. Wait for either a confirmed reaction from 4,255 - 4,285 or a clear rejection from 4,365 - 4,400. Will gold defend 4,255 before the Fed decision, or will sellers break the floor and extend the decline?