The Fed delivered a 25bp hike overnight and signalled one further increase by year-end before remaining on hold through 2027. As discussed yesterday, with almost four hikes having already been priced out of the 2027 curve, the bar for an overtly hawkish surprise was relatively high. The dot plot's indication of no cuts next year was therefore not especially hawkish in absolute terms, although it was clearly more hawkish than the previous set of projections.The market read the outcome as hawkish and full disclosure, my initial reaction was to buy dollars following the announcement, but with several other central banks still on tightening paths and global growth remaining resilient. I am less convinced about chasing the USD materially higher from current levels.Admittedly. Warsh also addressed some of the Fed s credibility concerns, which has likely been weighing on the USD. therefore, I rotated most of my remaining AUD/USD longs into crosses, a move that has worked well overnight.