The six-month high (NOTE: claims that are unverified) in Hormuz shipments is (if true!) a supply-side positive that should temper the more extreme upside scenarios for crude, but the risk premium is unlikely to fade while Iran maintains the closure and talks on agreed shipping routes stay stalled. The clearer price signal may sit in refined products, where a reported strike on jet fuel facilities at a major Saudi airport would add to a squeeze that has been building since the summer. Riyadh's alerts also put Saudi infrastructure back in traders' sights, and with a Saudi bypass pipeline already knocked out (albeit with rebiuliding works proceeding at a quick pace), any further hit near Saudi energy assets would likely be priced quickly. With Washington politically motivated to highlight tanker volumes, traders may look for hard shipping data rather than official messaging before leaning on the improvement.---Washington is pointing to a six-month high in Hormuz shipments as proof its mine clearance is working, but Iran still claims the strait is shut and Riyadh's air raid alerts show the risk has not gone away.Summary:US Central Command head Admiral Brad Cooper said on September 19 that oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks were the highest in six months, and that US naval protection and mine clearance are paying off.Cooper said the strait's primary transit lanes are clear of mines and that Persian Gulf allies have shipped more than one billion barrels of crude through it in the last couple of months.Iran maintains it has closed the strait, regional talks on agreed shipping routes have faltered, and drone attacks linked to the Iran war halted a Saudi pipeline that bypasses the strait, adding to an oil and product squeeze since the summer.Riyadh had two early-morning air raid alerts on September 19, the first in the capital since the March and April peak of the US-Iran war, and a reported air strike hit jet fuel facilities at King Khalid International Airport.The Trump administration, facing high petrol and diesel prices in a midterm year, has cited tanker volumes. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on September 13 that markets rely on around 10 million barrels a day through the strait and are tight, but not overly so.Shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have reached their highest level in six months, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, who said the result shows US naval protection and mine clearance efforts are delivering. Speaking in a video message on September 19, Cooper said momentum is building and that the strait's primary transit lanes are now clear of mines.Cooper added that Persian Gulf allies have moved more than one billion barrels of crude through the waterway over the last couple of months. His remarks follow a squeeze on global oil and petroleum product supply since the summer, driven in part by drone attacks linked to the Iran war that halted a Saudi Arabian pipeline built to bypass the strait. Iran maintains that it has closed the strait, and regional negotiations on agreed shipping routes have faltered, leaving the two accounts of conditions in the waterway unreconciled.Security concerns in Saudi Arabia surfaced separately the same day. Authorities issued two early-morning air raid alerts for Riyadh on September 19, the first in the capital since the height of the US-Iran war in March and April, and Saudi civil defence said the danger had passed soon after each one. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing three officials with knowledge of the incident, that an air strike hit jet fuel facilities at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, and said black smoke could be seen at the site. That account rests on unnamed officials.The political backdrop is also relevant. The administration of US President Donald Trump, facing soaring petrol and diesel prices in a midterm election year, has repeatedly cited the volume of tanker traffic through the strait in recent weeks. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on September 13 that markets will need to keep relying on transit he estimates at 10 million barrels a day of crude and oil products, describing oil markets as tighter than he would like but not overly tight.Traders are likely to watch whether the improved shipping volumes are sustained, whether there are further attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and whether talks on agreed shipping routes resume. The gap between Washington's account of a recovering waterway and Iran's assertion that it remains closed, together with the alerts in Riyadh, leaves the supply outlook exposed to headlines in either direction. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.