Pricing is running ahead of the message. Markets see a high probability of a quarter-point move next month, yet Stournaras is openly talking about the option to wait, which leaves front-end euro rates vulnerable if incoming data softens. Oil is the swing factor, so crude and gas headlines linked to the Iran war are effectively rate headlines for the euro area and can shift ECB expectations, and the euro with them. The Fed's recent decision is being read by Stournaras as supportive of global policy credibility, which suggests he is not looking to see the ECB fall far out of step with other major central banks.---Stournaras is keeping the door open to an October hike but wants the ECB to wait for its next forecasts if the outlook stays murky, leaving oil and September inflation to decide.Summary:Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said the ECB must stay vigilant on upside inflation risks but should avoid acting hastily.He called the lack of second-round wage effects encouraging but said stability cannot be taken for granted, citing repeated supply-side shocks, fiscal expansion and booming AI investment.Inflation is above 3%, against the 2% target, after two rate increases since the war in Iran began. Some policymakers see room for more tightening, while others worry about growth.Stournaras said an October hike cannot be ruled out if energy costs surge or September inflation accelerates, but the ECB can pause and wait for its next forecasts if uncertainty persists.He said slowing activity or a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East that quickly lowers energy prices would weigh against further hikes.Markets price a quarter-point deposit rate increase to 2.75% next month, with further tightening expected, despite reservations among economists.The European Central Bank must remain vigilant on upside risks to inflation but should avoid acting hastily, Governing Council member and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of a meeting of European finance ministers and central bankers in Dublin.Stournaras said the absence of second-round wage effects is a positive, but that policymakers cannot take the current stability for granted. He pointed to a continuous run of supply-side shocks, together with demand pressure from fiscal expansion and the booming artificial intelligence investment sector, as reasons for ongoing caution.Central bank officials are weighing their next steps as they try to bring inflation back to the 2% target from a level above 3%, after two interest rate increases since the outbreak of war in Iran. Some policymakers argue that the resilience of the euro area gives scope for more tightening, while others are concerned about the effect of further hikes on growth. With more than a month to go before the next monetary policy meeting, Stournaras said the ECB staff's upcoming economic projections will be a key guide for decisions.He said an October rate increase cannot be ruled out if energy costs surge or if September inflation data accelerates into an adverse scenario. If uncertainty remains, however, he said policymakers can afford to pause and wait for the following forecast round rather than rush into action. Signs of slowing activity, or a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East that could quickly lower energy prices, would weigh against additional hikes, he added.Financial markets are pricing a high probability of a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.75% next month, with further tightening expected to follow, although economists have voiced reservations. Stournaras also described the Federal Reserve's recent rate decision as a positive development for global monetary policy credibility, given the central role of the US dollar.---The next is European Central Bank meeting is at the end of October: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.