By William Serafino – Sep 17, 2026In a rapid and strong military offensive on the Yemeni coast of the Red Sea, the political-military movement Ansarallah (the de facto government of Yemen) has gained strategic influence over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a commercial and fuel route whose geopolitical significance has increased exponentially since oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was halted by Iran in response to Washington and Tel Aviv’s illegal attacks on its territory in February.A game-changing blitzkriegIn just a few days, like a domino effect, Ansar Allah’s military campaign seized strategic positions in Yemen that were under the control of the government backed by Saudi Arabia.According to a report by Al Mayadeen, on September 10, “Yemeni forces took control of the districts of Hays and Al-Khokha, south of the Hodeidah governorate, on the Red Sea coast,” as part of a broad ground deployment by Ansarallah that included simultaneous battles in the southwest and the interior of the country.On the same day, the strategic port city of Mocha, just a few dozen kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, fell to Ansarallah. Mohammed al Bukhaiti, a member of the Ansarallah Political Bureau, told RT that the organization had taken control of the strait, which contributed to pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel.Coastal advances have continued, with the islands of Perim, Greater Hanish, and Lesser Hanish falling to Ansarallah forces, as they aim to dominate the artery connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean through which 12% of global trade transits.The political and military setback suffered by Riyadh is energy-related in addition to territorial. In this regard, the situation resembles a general short circuit: facing a combination of precision attacks from Yemen and Iraq, the Saudi government has shut down the East-West pipeline, is trying to overcome the damage to its refineries, and has suspended oil shipments from the port of Yanbu.Break in the Hormuz safety valveThe Yemeni advance occurs at a particularly critical moment in the confrontation between Washington and Tehran in the Strait of Hormuz, with US attacks on oil tankers and Iranian counterattacks on US military assets in the Gulf escalating in intensity.As the situation in the strait has worsened, Riyadh has increasingly relied on the East-West pipeline to transport crude oil from Hormuz to Yanbu, and then export it via the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb strait.In light of the new geopolitical scenario in the Red Sea, this logistical reorganization of regional oil trade has weakened, significantly affecting global crude prices.The firm Rystad Energy predicts a bleak short-term scenario, as daily transport volume through the pipeline (between 2.6 and 4 million barrels per day) risks “disappearing from the market.” The sky is the limit for future increases in the price of a barrel.The simultaneous double energy stranglehold on Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb not only intensifies the ongoing international fuel crisis but also restricts the already narrow margin of maneuver of a global energy industry that had weak mechanisms to respond effectively.According to experts cited by The Guardian, “the stock buffers that existed in the system earlier this year, shielding the world from the worst effects of an oil shock by limiting price increases, have now largely disappeared.”Trump, the big loserWith a transmission speed surpassing that of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the Yemeni geopolitical game changer made its powerful effects felt on the backbone of the US political economy: fuel prices. The rapid turnaround acted as a multiplier for the existing global supply restriction in Hormuz.Over the weekend, the price of diesel exceeded $6 per gallon, adding an extra $2.58 to what consumers were paying a year ago. Gasoline, for its part, is dangerously climbing toward $5 per gallon, according to national averages recorded by the American Automobile Association.The upward trend in fuel prices implies a double political blow for Trump in the upcoming midterms, where the Democratic Party leads national voting intention thanks to potential support of independents, according to recent YouGov polls.Trump’s loss of face before US citizensTrump has been politically exposed for failing to fulfil his grand promise to lower gasoline prices below $3 per gallon. Since then, facing the impossibility of turning his word into material reality, he has been modifying his statements to offer a perspective of relief close to the elections or immediately after them.However, unless there is a unilateral concession from Iran, which there is no indication could happen in the short term, there is no viable way to ease the cost of fuel.If the All-America survey by CNBC in October 2025 showed a 62% disapproval of Trump’s economic management, it is logical to infer that disapproval is increasing at the same pace as the rising numbers on gas station counters across the US.On the other hand, the recent official figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 3.4% increase in prices in August. A third of that increase corresponds to the surge in fuel prices, directly associated with global oil prices in the three-digit range.Thus, the frustration at the gas stations translates directly to the household economy, the central battleground of the November midterms. There, Democrats have gained a significant advantage with their affordability narrative.The other damage is partisan. Following the national climate, Republican voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the country’s economic situation.A recent report by Natalie Allison of The Washington Post illustrates the collapse: in January of this year, according to the New York Times and Siena University poll, “72% of Republican voters stated that the economy was better than a year before. Now, nine months later, only 29% of Republicans feel the same way.”The cruel twists of history have led Trump to become his own target. In that distant 2012, a year that now seems a century away, the current US president tweeted: “Gas prices are at crazy levels—fire Obama!”Careless speech can cost one dearly.Venezuelan Oil Cannot Fill US Strategic Reserves, Trump Faces Electoral Defeat in MidtermsA dead endVictim of his own arrogance, Trump has entered a maze and seems to have thrown away the key. His ammunition is scant, to say the least, to reverse the consequences of the war that he unilaterally launched in West Asia in February.He cannot keep releasing crude from strategic US reserves due to its dangerously low levels. The temporary measure of lifting restrictions on sanctioned vessels to access oil stored offshore worked momentarily, but according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, “those reserves have already been depleted.”Betting on an exponential increase in Venezuelan production runs counter to market reality, and filling the US reserve with crude from Venezuela presents significant operational and technical obstacles.The extreme severity of the situation forces Trump to choose between politically costly and deeply damaging extremes electorally.Making a pact with Iran to resolve the geopolitical deadlock in Hormuz will project him as a weak personality, a perception that is by no means convenient in the final stages of an electoral process.At the same time, moving forward with a military escalation without a guaranteed horizon of victory will only add more fuel to the fire, making the problem that he is trying to solve unmanageable.Facing this destructive dilemma, Trump most likely hopes that a fierce Saudi counteroffensive, combined with Ansarallah’s logistical difficulties in maintaining its epic territorial conquests, will break Yemen’s dominance over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.Even if that were to happen today, it is impossible to put out the fire. (Diario Red)Translation: Orinoco TribuneOT/SC/SF