Gold (GC) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Mon (Sep 21)Gold FuturesCOMEX:GC1!MyAlgoIndexBias: December gold settled Friday at 4,424.9, up 25.2 on the session. That is a gain of 0.57 percent from Thursday's 4,399.7 close, but the shape of the day matters more than the size of the gain. The contract opened at 4,381.6, which was 18.1 beneath the prior settlement, traded down to 4,372.2, then recovered the entire deficit and closed at 4,424.9, a gain of 43.3 from its own open and 78.0 percent of the way up the session range measured from the low. A gap-down open that closes in the upper part of the session range is a reversal signature, and the documented facts are the 43.3 point open-to-close rise and the 78.0 percent closing position. The one United States activity release captured for the session, industrial production at 09:15 AM ET, printed 0.0 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast, with capacity utilisation at 76.3 percent against 76.4 percent expected, which is supportive for gold at the margin. The complication is the yield side, where the captured market wrap headline described ten-year yields rising during the session, with no level or quote time captured, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. The policy backdrop remains restrictive: the central bank projections published Wednesday show twelve of eighteen officials expecting one further 25 basis point increase this year. The medium-term picture is still damaged. Price sits 23.47 percent beneath its 52-week high of 5,781.8, it is down 3.20 percent over twenty sessions, and it remains 67.2 beneath the 20-day average of 4,492.1 and 223.7 beneath the 200-day average of 4,648.6, with a multi-indicator composite reading just 32 percent buy at weak strength, though its direction is rated strengthening. What argues the other way is momentum: the stochastic percent K sits above percent D on both the 9-day and 14-day horizons, at 52.73 against 37.58 and 36.85 against 25.09, and price closed 12.6 above its own pivot point of 4,412.3 and back above both the 50-day average of 4,342.8 and the 100-day average of 4,410.5. The trend framework says neither side owns this market, with a 14-day directional index of 16.42 and the two directional components separated by five hundredths of a point. Bias is constructive on a pullback into the 4,397 to 4,385 grouping, and this is a levels market rather than a trend market. Two days of headline exposure separate Friday's settlement from the Sunday reopen at 06:00 PM ET, including a Chinese loan prime rate decision at 09:00 PM ET Saturday, per the news-feed calendar captured for this run, unconfirmed against the verified forward calendar. Resistance: - 4,520.0 (Pivot R3, outermost resistance of Monday's ladder) - 4,514.1 (50 percent retracement of the four-week range) - 4,492.1 (20-day moving average, the level the short-term composite signal is measured against) - 4,479.9 (Pivot R2, grouped with the 2 standard deviation resistance at 4,477.2) - 4,472.5 (38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high, 4.7 beneath the 2 standard deviation resistance) - 4,452.4 (Pivot R1, effectively identical to the computed target price at 4,452.0) - 4,439.8 (Friday's session high) Support: - 4,412.3 (Pivot Point, the mechanical midpoint the session closed above) - 4,410.5 (100-day moving average, reclaimed on the session and the nearest trend line above the entry zone) - 4,387.9 (1 standard deviation support) - 4,385.3 (50 percent retracement of the 13-week range) - 4,384.8 (Pivot S1, three references inside 3.1 points with the two levels above, adjacent beneath the 4,385 zone edge) - 4,372.2 (Friday's session low, effectively identical to the 2 standard deviation support at 4,372.6) - 4,360.8 (3 standard deviations support, outer statistical band) - 4,344.7 (Pivot S2, second pivot support of Monday's ladder) Primary Setup: LONG December gold from the 4,385 to 4,397 entry zone, built on the grouping where the one standard deviation support at 4,387.9, the 50 percent retracement of the 13-week range at 4,385.3 and the first pivot support at 4,384.8 sit inside 3.1 points, the last of those adjacent beneath the zone's lower edge. Stop at 4,358, beneath the third standard deviation support at 4,360.8, which itself sits beneath Friday's low at 4,372.2 and the effectively coincident second standard deviation support at 4,372.6. Targets at 4,440 first, Friday's session high, then 4,452 second, where the computed target price at 4,452.0 and the first pivot resistance at 4,452.4 sit within half a point of each other, and 4,480 third, the second pivot resistance grouped with the second standard deviation resistance at 4,477.2 and the 38.2 percent retracement from the 13-week high at 4,472.5, only if momentum extends on expanding volume. Measured from the 4,391 midpoint against the 4,358 stop, risk is 33 points for approximately 1:1.5 to the first target, 1:1.8 to the second and 1:2.7 to the third. Invalidation is a settlement beneath 4,360.8, which takes out Friday's low and the second standard deviation band together. The 33 point risk is 30 percent of the 14-day average true range of 108.7, so the stop is tight by this contract's standards, and the weekend carries a Chinese loan prime rate decision at 09:00 PM ET Saturday with calendar forecasts of 3 percent and 3.5 percent, per the news-feed calendar captured for this run, unconfirmed against the verified forward calendar. The cash open at 09:30 AM ET Monday gives the first liquid directional test of the map above. The calendar captured for Monday shows no United States data release; the week's first-order risk for this metal is Tuesday, when three central bank speakers and a two-year note auction land, at 10:05 AM ET, 10:20 AM ET and 01:00 PM ET with the auction also at 01:00 PM ET, per the news-feed calendar captured for this run, unconfirmed against the verified forward calendar.