BTC BIG PIC - THE 3 ScenariosBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTmaxi_ontiBear market timer on BTC is almost up! ~348 days off the 126k high. Last cycle bottoms printed ~12–13 months after the top. Time pressure is on the bears now! 📢 3 main scenarios and the biggest arguments for each: A: Bottom already in Impulsive bounce off the August low. → Every rally this year was corrective after an aggressive flush down. This is the first time we’ve seen an aggressive move to the upside, especially for altcoins, and price is holding up very well! 🦾 → First time BTC has broken above all the big daily EMAs (50, 100, 200) and is now well above them, flipping them into support. → This is also the week we could close a second time above the big weekly EMAs and ATH VWAP! → Still more short liquidations sitting above on the 6-month and 1-year heatmap and acting as magnets for price! B: Local top here, then a higher low in the $72k–$70k area → For B & C: we have not made a higher high yet and could still print a lower high. → Absolutely massive imbalances below from the huge pump, the retrace can be as fast as the pump. → Big bearish RSI divergence forming on the daily, momentum is slowing. Last squeeze higher to clean shorts, before the final breakdown → Trapped longs can accelerate the move down once they’re forced to close. → Spot demand to keep up! Why a higher low: time is running out and the move up was impulsive. EMAs + VWAP give support, and structure still allows a higher low. Honestly this would even be a healthy move for the market and a great opportunity for everyone who caught the bottom to compound their longs. That’s still constructive. Just not from this level. And if you’re not long yet, that would be the first real bigger buying opportunity. C → Bottom not in. Final bull trap. No higher low yet after this rally. → Same reasons as B, but a lot of long liquidity is still sitting below the $62k–$60k lows and under 57k. → We all know how fast sentiment can shift from greed now to fear later, within days. → Cycle theory still argues for more drawdown from ATH. What to make of it: Almost nobody thinks 81k is the buy anymore. That window was 58–62k. I also don’t care about “is the bottom in” at this price. We can only act now. If we go back into 72–70k, then we discuss if a new low is still coming. Until a weekly close above ~83k + a higher high, structure isn’t confirmed. Until 72–70k breaks, C is just a scenario, not the trade. NFA.