The gap between Goldman's base case and its risk case is wide, so gas is pricing a genuine two-way bet on Hormuz flows, and any sign of LNG loadings improving or stalling could move both benchmarks quickly. Higher gas would support coal where switching is possible, which links the gas story to broader energy demand. It also feeds through to European inflation, which matters for central banks already debating further tightening. Oil traders should watch the same shipping headlines, because the strait is the shared risk for crude and LNG alike.---Earlier:Oil opens higher on Globex as traders weigh Houthi missile attack on Riyadh---Goldman says this winter's gas price depends on Hormuz LNG flows, with a stalled recovery pushing Europe and Asia toward levels that would force industry to cut demand.Summary:Goldman Sachs reiterated upside risks to gas prices, saying TTF and JKM will likely reach 105 euros per MWh and $35 per MMBtu by year-end if Persian Gulf LNG exports do not meaningfully improve this winter, assuming average winter weather.That compares with a base case of 70 euros per MWh and around $25 per MMBtu, which assumes Hormuz LNG flows gradually improve.Goldman expects most demand destruction to come from the industrial sector, which uses large volumes of gas.Its conversations with Indian industrial users suggest $30 per MMBtu could be an important threshold for further demand destruction.Some gas-to-coal switching may already be taking place among Chinese industrial gas users.European LNG importers are expected largely to pass high LNG costs downstream.Goldman Sachs reiterated upside risks to gas prices, warning that European and Asian benchmarks could climb sharply if liquefied natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf remain constrained, according to Reuters. The bank said that without a meaningful improvement in Gulf LNG exports this winter, the Dutch TTF and Asian JKM benchmarks will likely reach 105 euros per megawatt hour and $35 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) by year-end, assuming average winter weather.That is well above Goldman's base case of 70 euros and around $25, which assumes Hormuz LNG flows gradually improve. The distance between the two scenarios shows how much of the outlook rests on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran maintains that it has closed the strait, while US Central Command said over the weekend that oil and LNG shipments through it reached a six-month high in the past two weeks. The two accounts leave the flow outlook unsettled.Goldman expects most of the resulting demand destruction to come from industrial users, which consume large amounts of natural gas. It said its direct conversations with Indian industrial users suggest that $30 per MMBtu could be an important threshold for triggering additional cuts in industrial gas demand. The bank also said some gas-to-coal switching might already be taking place among Chinese industrial users. On the supply chain, it expects European LNG importers largely to pass high LNG costs through to customers downstream.Goldman's own numbers place the $30 threshold between its base case of around $25 and its risk case of $35, which suggests demand rationing would come into play mainly in the risk scenario. The cost pass-through in Europe also has macro consequences. European Central Bank Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said last week that an October rate rise could not be ruled out if energy costs surge, so a gas spike would feed straight into that debate.The direction from here depends on how quickly Gulf LNG flows recover, and on winter weather, since Goldman's targets assume an average season. A steady improvement in Hormuz shipments would move prices toward the base case, while a stalled recovery or a cold spell would add to the upside risk. Traders will watch loadings data, further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and the state of regional talks on shipping routes.---TTF and JKM, the two gas prices in Goldman's forecastTTF (Title Transfer Facility)The benchmark price for natural gas in Europe. It is named after a virtual trading hub in the Netherlands, where gas changes hands regardless of whether it arrived by pipeline or as LNG. The most-watched contract is the front-month future traded on ICE Endex, the Amsterdam-based ICE exchange for European energy. It is quoted in euros per megawatt hour (MWh).JKM (Japan Korea Marker)The benchmark price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, including Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan. Unlike TTF, it is not a screen price from a single exchange. S&P Global Commodity Insights assesses it daily based on spot cargo deals and offers, and futures and swaps linked to it trade on exchanges including CME and ICE. It is quoted in US dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu).How the two are linkedLNG is shipped by sea, so a cargo can be sold to whichever region pays more. That tends to keep TTF and JKM moving in the same direction, and the gap between them signals where flexible cargoes are heading. When Gulf supply is constrained, both markets compete for what is left, which is why Goldman forecasts them together.Comparing the unitsOne MWh is about 3.4 MMBtu. On that arithmetic, 105 euros per MWh works out to roughly 31 euros per MMBtu, or a little over $35 at a euro-dollar rate around 1.15. The exact dollar figure depends on the exchange rate. It shows why Goldman's two year-end targets are consistent with each other.Why it matters TTF sets the cost of gas for European utilities, industry and, indirectly, household bills. JKM is the price signal for Asian importers competing for the same cargoes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.