袁莉2026年9月21日 Dongyan Xu“The U.S. Lead Over China in AI Is All But Gone.”“美国在人工智能领域对中国的领先优势几乎荡然无存。”“China Is AI-Maxxing.”“中国正在全力押注人工智能。”“China Just Erased America’s AI Lead.”“中国刚刚抹去了美国在人工智能领域的领先优势。”Those assessments of the artificial intelligence rivalry appeared in U.S. publications recently, and Xi Jinping will be pleased to have them in the air as he arrives in Washington this week for a state visit. Under Mr. Xi’s leadership, China has made huge strides in developing the most consequential technology of our times. What will be less discussed is that he is also the leader of an economy in its worst shape in decades.这些关于中美人工智能竞争的判断最近出现在美国媒体上。中国领导人本周抵达华盛顿进行国事访问时，会乐见这样的说法甚嚣尘上。在习近平领导下，中国在发展这个时代最具影响力的技术方面取得了巨大进步。但较少被谈及的是，他领导下的中国经济也正处于几十年来最糟糕的状态。The two facts are related.这两个事实相互关联。Economists in China — even those closest to the state — have openly warned that the government is pouring too many resources into a technology that creates relatively few jobs, while doing too little to save the broader economy.中国的经济学家——即便是那些与政府关系最密切的经济学家——也公开警告说，政府正在把过多资源投入一种创造就业岗位相对有限的技术，在提振整体经济上的投入力度却远远不够。And it’s an economy in crisis: The country’s youth unemployment rate, excluding students, reached 18.9 percent in August. Consumers are not spending. During the first half of the year, domestic car sales fell markedly 20 percent from a year earlier, and housing sales fell another 14 percent, adding to years of decline. The country is in a deflationary spiral.而这是一个正陷入危机的经济体：8月，不包括在校学生的青年失业率达到18.9%。消费者不愿花钱。今年上半年，国内汽车销量较上年同期大幅下降20%，住房销售再降14%，延续了多年来的下滑势头。中国正陷入通缩螺旋。This summer, the economists’ warnings became a chorus. Li Daokui, a former adviser to the country’s central bank and a professor at Tsinghua University, said in July that China’s economy was “running too cold.” Its booming high-tech sectors, he said, could not lift the larger base.今年夏天，经济学家的警告开始此起彼伏。曾任中国央行顾问、现为清华大学教授的李稻葵7月表示，中国经济“运行偏冷”。他说，蓬勃发展的高科技产业无法带动更庞大的经济基本盘。Liu Shijin, another former adviser to the central bank, proposed at a forum in June to raise basic pension payouts, from $30 to $150 per month, for rural residents to shore up consumer demand.另一位前央行顾问刘世锦在6月的一次论坛上提议将农民基本养老金从每月200多元提高到1000元，从而直接释放消费活力。At the same forum, Huang Haizhou, an adviser to the central bank, said Beijing must foster mild inflation and corporate profitability before sustained technological advancement could occur. “A country mired in deflation cannot achieve technological innovation,” he said.在同一论坛上，央行顾问黄海洲表示，北京必须推动温和通胀并提高企业盈利能力，才能实现持续的技术进步。“一个深陷通缩的国家是不可能实现真正的技术创新的，”他说。The economists’ comments were earlier reported by Bloomberg and Chinese media.彭博新闻社和中国媒体此前报道了这些经济学家的说法。今年上半年，汽车销量下降20%，住房销售下滑14%，凸显出中国不断加深的通缩螺旋。The exact amount of government support for artificial intelligence is difficult to know. Stanford’s AI Index Report noted that state-initiated investment funds deployed an estimated $184 billion into A.I. firms from 2000 to 2023. Last year, Mr. Xi instructed the government to use every tool at its disposal, including tax breaks, government contracts, financing and access to infrastructure, to advance A.I. And, according to Bloomberg, China is preparing to spend around $295 billion over the next five years to build data centers across the country, which will be operated by state-owned firms.中国政府究竟为人工智能提供了多少支持，很难确切知道。斯坦福大学的《人工智能指数报告》指出，从2000年到2023年，由政府发起的投资基金估计向人工智能企业投入了1840亿美元。去年，习近平要求政府动用一切可以动用的手段，包括财政税收、政府采购、融资和设施开放，推动人工智能发展。据彭博新闻社报道，中国正准备在未来五年投入约2950亿美元，在全国建设数据中心，并由国有企业负责运营。The Chinese economists’ bluntness was itself revealing, as was the timing, just ahead of the regular midyear meeting of China’s ruling Politburo. They have been warned against sounding too pessimistic, and some have been censored or silenced for doing so. That these establishment figures were speaking so starkly right before the leadership was about to calibrate economic policy suggested how alarmed they had become.中国经济学家的直言本身就耐人寻味，而时机也很能说明问题——正好在中国执政的政治局举行例行年中会议之前。他们此前已被警告不要显得过于悲观，一些人还因此遭到审查或被迫噤声。这些体制内人士在领导层即将调整经济政策之前如此直白地发声，说明他们的忧虑已经到了何种程度。Taken together, their message was clear: the Chinese economy was in trouble and an A.I.-centered allocation of resources could prove costly to ordinary people’s livelihoods and the country’s economic future.综合起来，他们传达的信息很明确：中国经济陷入了麻烦，而以人工智能为中心的资源分配可能会让普通人的生计和国家的经济未来付出高昂代价。The leadership gave their warnings little heed. When the Politburo meeting ended on July 30, the party acknowledged the need for “proactive” measures to boost the economy, but stuck with incremental stimulus policies and vowed to develop “an intelligent new economy.” State media reports broke with previous practice and did not announce a target for domestic growth.领导层几乎没有理会他们的警告。7月30日政治局会议结束时，中共承认有必要采取“积极”措施提振经济，但仍坚持渐进式刺激政策，并承诺发展“智能经济新形态”。官方媒体的报道一反以往惯例，没有公布国内经济增长目标。Fixed-asset investment, including infrastructure, real estate and equipment, fell 4.1 percent in the first five months of the year. Mr. Li, the former central bank adviser, said a similar contraction happened only twice in the history of the People’s Republic: in 1961, at the height of the Great Famine, and in 1967, at the height of the Cultural Revolution. (It also fell in 1989 following the Tiananmen Square massacre, but it probably wouldn’t be wise to mention that at a meeting in Beijing.)今年前五个月，包括基础设施、房地产和设备在内的固定资产投资下降4.1%。前央行顾问李稻葵表示，建国以来只出现过两次类似的萎缩：一次是1961年（那是大饥荒最严重的时候），另一次是1967年（那是文化大革命最激烈的时候）。（1989年天安门广场大屠杀后也出现过下降，不过在北京的会议上提起这件事恐怕并不明智。）Mr. Xi has offered a revealing explanation of how he measures economic progress.习近平曾经解释过他如何衡量经济进步，这番话颇能说明问题。“We cannot look only at G.D.P. growth,” he said in a speech in March. What mattered, he argued, was China’s growing “hard power” and its development of advanced industries. In Mr. Xi’s view, slower growth does not necessarily signify failure if technological advancement proceeds “upward step by step.”“不能光看国内生产总值增长，”他在3月的一次讲话中说。他认为，真正重要的是中国“硬实力”的增长，以及发展新质生产力。在习近平看来，只要技术进步能够“一步一步往上走”，经济增速放缓并不一定意味着失败。Rather than boosting household disposable income with cash or shopping vouchers or expanding the social safety net, as many economists have suggested, Mr. Xi believes that state-led technological rollouts will modernize traditional industries and unlock future economic value. But those gains could take years to materialize.许多经济学家建议通过发放现金、购物券或扩大社会保障网来提高家庭可支配收入，但习近平对此并不认同，而是相信国家主导的技术推广将推动传统产业现代化，并释放未来经济价值。但这些收益可能需要多年之后才能实现。7月，习近平在上海出席世界人工智能大会。在他的领导下，中国在开发当今最具影响力的技术方面突飞猛进。但代价呢？China cannot afford to sit out the A.I. race. And in the first half of 2026, investment in information services, a sector the National Bureau of Statistics said was being propelled by A.I., jumped 19.2 percent. The technology could transform its economy and strengthen its position in its competition against the United States.中国不能承受在人工智能竞赛中缺席。2026年上半年，信息服务业的投资增长了19.2%。国家统计局称，这一行业正受到人工智能推动。这项技术可能改变中国经济，并增强其在与美国竞争中的地位。But at what cost?但这么做的代价是什么？Xu Chenggang, a Chinese economist at Stanford, put plainly what his peers in Beijing could only imply. China has more fiscal and monetary flexibility than most countries because Beijing controls the banking system. Every yuan going into state-backed technology is a yuan not spent on employment and consumption.斯坦福大学的中国经济学家许成钢直截了当地说出了北京的同行们只能暗示的事情。由于北京控制着银行体系，中国在财政和货币政策上的腾挪空间比大多数国家都要大。投入国家支持的科技产业的每一元钱都意味着少了一元钱用于就业和消费。“When you have only this much money, what do you spend it on?” he said.“钱就这么多，你要把它花在哪里？”他说。In a crisis similar to what China is facing, many governments would use stimulus to create jobs, Mr. Xu said. When people have jobs, he said, they spend more, creating a positive economic feedback loop. Instead, Beijing is concentrating its investment in A.I., a technology that may exacerbate high unemployment by reducing demand for workers.许成钢说，在类似中国当前面临的危机中，许多政府会通过刺激措施创造就业。人们有了工作就会增加消费，从而形成经济上的良性循环。但北京却把投资集中在人工智能上，而这种技术由于会减少对劳动力的需求，反而可能加剧高失业率。Some Chinese internet users are already calling the investment rush an “A.I. Great Leap Forward,” invoking Mao Zedong’s disastrous campaign of politically driven industrialization.一些中国网民已经把这场投资热潮称为“人工智能大跃进”，这里借用了毛泽东那场由政治驱动、造成灾难性后果的工业化运动。A.I. companies ultimately need more than government support. They need businesses and consumers willing and able to pay for their products, Mr. Xu said. By weakening household demand and business vitality, Beijing may be depriving its A.I. industry of the market it needs to become commercially successful.许成钢说，人工智能企业最终需要的不只是政府支持。它们需要愿意并且有能力为其产品付费的企业和消费者。北京削弱家庭需求和商业活力，可能反而使人工智能产业失去实现商业成功所需要的市场。China has repeatedly demonstrated that an authoritarian state can keep an unsustainable model operating longer than outsiders expect. But history also demonstrates that “longer” does not mean forever.中国已多次表明，一个威权国家可以让一种不可持续的模式维持得比外界预想的更久。但历史同样表明，“更久”并不意味着永远。Sun Liping, a prominent sociologist in Beijing, invoked the Soviet Union. At its peak, its economy was roughly 70 percent the size of America’s, and it surpassed the United States in some fields of science and technology.北京知名社会学家孙立平提到了苏联。在鼎盛时期，苏联的经济规模约为美国的70%，并且在一些科学技术领域超过了美国。Yet its centrally managed economy eventually stalled.然而，其中央管理的经济最终陷入停滞。China can produce vast quantities of increasingly sophisticated goods, Mr. Sun wrote in an article. But who in China will be able to afford them? Without buyers, products go unsold, businesses earn no profits, household incomes cannot rise and employment cannot improve.孙立平在一篇文章中写道，中国可以生产数量庞大、技术日益先进的商品。但卖给谁？谁来买？卖不出去，没人买，经济就无法循环，企业就没有利润，居民收入就无法增加，就业的情况就不可能改善。“That,” he wrote, “is the fundamental problem with China’s economy today.”他写道：“这就是现在中国经济的基本症结。”袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。