By Luis Vicente León – Sep 17, 2026The announcement made by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) on Monday, September 14, about new interest rates in effect from Tuesday, September 15, is the most visible part of a strategy that the BCV has been assembling for weeks. First, it met with the banks and, according to reports, warned of a much harsher punishment for those who fall short of reserve requirements. On September 11, the BCV published the new reserve requirements in the Gazette. On September 15, it set higher minimum rates, which now also remunerate current accounts and turn what was previously the ceiling of credits into a floor.The objective is clear. With more bolívars on the way due to public spending and a shorter supply of foreign currency, the BCV intends to dry up liquidity so these bolívars do not end up pressuring the exchange market and the gap—now at its lowest level of the year—can be contained.The strategy makes sense; the difficult part is maintaining it. Such a strong restriction is like an extreme diet, which works as long as the discipline lasts. The discipline that weighs most heavily here is fiscal discipline, just as the last quarter approaches with its seasonal spending pressure and reconstruction after the earthquakes demands enormous resources. Calvo, Reinhart, and Végh showed in 1995, using evidence from Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, that without changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated exchange rate can only be sustained temporarily and at the cost of higher inflation or higher real rates. Closing the gap by moving it only on the official side, without that support, runs the risk of becoming a long race between devaluation and inflation.Venezuela Reports 8.9% Inflation in August, Down Sharply From JulyTherefore, exchange rate stability must be paired with an agenda that expands the economic base. Increasing confidence, expanding oil production, and strengthening productive linkages would generate more activity and, above all, open up more options for investing in bolívars within the country. When the bolívar has places to be invested besides the dollar, the demand for foreign currency becomes moderate. If an orderly increase in the supply of foreign exchange is added to that, currency stabilization can rely less and less on the monetary stranglehold and more and more on a growing economy. (X Luis Vicente León)Translation: Orinoco TribuneOT/SC/SF