XAUUSD – Weekly Outlook: Gold Is Testing A Medium-Term Decision GoldOANDA:XAUUSDHannah_MarlandXAUUSD – Weekly Outlook: Gold Is Testing A Medium-Term Decision Zone Gold is entering next week at a very important technical area. On the H4 chart, price is still moving inside a broad descending channel that has controlled the market since the previous major high. The recent recovery from the lower zone is noticeable, but gold has not fully broken the medium-term bearish structure yet. Current price is around 4,175, right below the trendline resistance and the sell reaction area. This makes next week very interesting: gold can either break the channel and continue higher, or reject again and return to the lower buy zone. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Gold remains sensitive to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and upcoming U.S. economic data. For next week, the market may continue to react strongly to any change in rate expectations. If the U.S. dollar weakens, gold may have room to extend its recovery. But if yields remain firm, sellers may continue to defend higher resistance zones. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI From an SMC perspective, gold has recovered from the lower part of the descending channel, but the recovery is now approaching a major decision area. The current resistance zone around 4,200 – 4,213 is important because it aligns with the descending trendline and the previous sell reaction structure. If price rejects from this area, sellers may regain control and push gold back toward 4,090. The 4,090 zone is the medium-term buy order area on the chart. This is a key support zone where buyers may look for another reaction if price pulls back. Above the current price, the Fibonacci psychological resistance around 4,305 is the next important target. If gold breaks and holds above the trendline, price may continue toward 4,305. Higher than that, the swing sell order zone around 4,411 becomes the major upside liquidity target. The structure is simple: 4,200 – 4,213 decides the first move, while 4,090 decides whether buyers can keep the recovery alive. KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH Current price: 4,175 Trendline resistance: 4,200 – 4,213 Sell resistance zone: Around 4,213 Medium-term buy order zone: Around 4,090 Fibonacci psychological resistance: 4,305 Swing sell order zone: 4,411 Main support for recovery: 4,090 Bullish continuation target: 4,305 Major upside liquidity: 4,411 Invalidation for bullish recovery: Below 4,090 TRADING SCENARIOS Buy Scenario – Medium-Term Recovery View If gold holds above 4,090 and shows bullish confirmation, I will watch for a medium-term recovery continuation. Buy Zone: Around 4,090 Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH, or strong bullish displacement from the buy zone SL: Below 4,090 or below the nearest swing low TP1: 4,213 TP2: 4,305 TP3: 4,411 Breakout Buy Scenario If gold breaks above 4,213 and holds above the trendline, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next Fibonacci resistance. Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,213, followed by retest and bullish confirmation Target: 4,305 – 4,411 Sell Scenario – Reaction From Resistance If gold reaches 4,200 – 4,213 and shows rejection, I will watch for a bearish reaction from the trendline area. Sell Zone: 4,200 – 4,213 Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH, or strong bearish displacement SL: Above 4,213 or above the nearest swing high TP1: 4,090 TP2: 4,000 TP3: Lower channel area if selling pressure expands Alternative Sell Scenario If gold breaks below 4,090 with strong momentum, the recovery structure becomes weaker. Sell Condition: Clean break below 4,090, followed by retest and bearish confirmation Target: 4,000 and lower channel support MY VIEW ON GOLD My medium-term view for gold next week is cautiously bullish only if price can hold above 4,090. Gold is recovering from the lower part of the channel, but the bigger downtrend has not been fully broken yet. The most important area to watch first is 4,200 – 4,213. If buyers break this zone clearly, the path toward 4,305 becomes much cleaner. However, if price rejects from the trendline again, I will not force the bullish view. In that case, gold may pull back toward the 4,090 buy order zone before choosing the next direction. For next week, gold is standing between recovery and rejection. Do you think gold will break above 4,213 and continue toward 4,305, or will sellers defend the trendline again?