Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTLee Samaha, The Motley FoolFri, July 3, 2026 at 8:25 AM GMT+2 4 min readThe metals supercycle argument holds that long-term spending on decarbonization, electrification, renewable energy, and AI infrastructure will boost end demand for miners, even as supply constraints remain real and constant. While this presents opportunities for rare earth companies like MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and copper miners like Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), there's a key difference in their risk/reward calculations that favors the latter.Freeport-McMoRan over MP MaterialsIf you believe in the metals supercycle argument, loosely sketched out above, then it makes sense to invest in a stock that best manifests that view, rather than one that contains risks over and above that view. In this context, I think Freeport-McMoRan is a better investment than MP Materials on a risk/reward basis for metals supercycle investors.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »MP Materials carries substantive riskMP Materials is a fine and worthy stock, but investors need to carry the execution risk inherent in its construction of a rare-earth magnet manufacturing facility in Northlake, Texas, known as "10X." On top of that its partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is not without controversy, not least as the DoD has invested in the company and provided it with a 10-year pricing floor guarantee, and, according to the press release, "DoD has agreed to ensure that 100% of the magnets produced at the 10X Facility will be purchased by defense and commercial customers."Meanwhile, recent export controls imposed by China will make it harder for the company to acquire rare-earth processing technology.Copper is a safer betOn the demand side, copper looks like a safe bet. It's used extensively in data centers, and the electrification needed to support it. In addition, electric vehicles use multiple times as much copper as internal combustion engines, and copper is also a core part of charging networks and indispensable for connecting renewable energy to the grid. In short, copper lies at the heart of the electrification of everything trend.Image source: Getty Images.On the other hand, ongoing supply constraints linked to long development lead times (more than 15 years from discovery to production), increasing political inflexibility in approving new mines, and declining ore grades are challenging supply growth.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info