Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnFiona CraigFri, July 3, 2026 at 5:39 PM GMT+2 2 min readAI chip ©Asih WahyuniSemiconductor leadership may become harder to sustainThe strong outperformance of artificial intelligence semiconductor companies relative to hyperscale cloud providers may not continue indefinitely, according to JPMorgan, which believes the current valuation gap between the two groups is unlikely to remain at current levels over the long term.In a note to clients, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou outlined two possible paths that could reduce the performance divergence.Two scenarios could reshape the AI investment landscapeUnder the bank's more optimistic scenario, hyperscalers, AI model developers and enterprise customers improve their ability to monetize artificial intelligence investments, leading to stronger revenue and earnings growth.JPMorgan said this would allow those companies to "catch up, capturing a bigger share of the overall AI value-added pie."The less favourable outcome would see semiconductor companies continuing to outperform at the expense of their largest customers, including hyperscalers and AI model developers.In that scenario, stronger chip-sector returns could "start to depress capex intentions" and "eventually act as a headwind to demand for the semiconductor companies' products."JPMorgan still favours the constructive outlookAlthough the bank acknowledged the risks, it said its central view remains aligned with the more positive scenario.However, JPMorgan also noted that many equity analysts currently expect hyperscaler capital expenditure growth to slow significantly from next year.According to the bank, that consensus, "taken at face value would tilt towards the negative scenario."Chip stocks remain vulnerable after prolonged outperformanceJPMorgan highlighted that semiconductor shares, particularly AI processor and memory manufacturers, have consistently outperformed hyperscalers since September last year.The bank believes that sustained leadership could leave the sector increasingly exposed if investor expectations begin to moderate.Money supply and crypto also in focusBeyond the AI sector, JPMorgan expects U.S. money supply growth to increase from $1.6 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2026.The bank also commented on digital assets, warning that MicroStrategy has "introduced avoidable two-way risk into crypto markets inducing more uncertainty and volatility."Get stock prices from InvestorsHubTerms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info