Gold Market Analysis for Next MondayGoldCAPITALCOM:XAUUSDqxvhngUS markets will be closed for the entire day due to Independence Day. All bullish sentiment triggered by the far weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls will be fully priced in on Monday. June non-farm payrolls rose by only 57,000, far below market consensus. Employment figures for the prior two months were also revised downwards, sharply curbing market bets on Fed rate hikes this year. The US dollar and US Treasury yields declined simultaneously, forming the core catalyst behind gold’s rebound. Nevertheless, the bullish momentum has clear upside limits. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and Fed officials have sent no signals of rate cuts—only delays to planned rate hikes. The high-interest-rate backdrop remains intact, meaning this rally is merely a corrective bounce after prior declines rather than a medium-term trend reversal. No major US economic indicators are scheduled for next Monday; only a few Fed officials are set to speak. Trading will center on technical range-bound movement with heavy wait-and-see sentiment among both bulls and bears. Funds will avoid aggressive one-sided positioning, as all traders await the US CPI inflation data due July 10 to determine market direction. Geopolitically, the Middle East stays calm with no sudden risk-off selloffs or sharp bullish shocks, exerting limited influence on gold prices. A large one-sided breakout is therefore unlikely next Monday. Gold will trend sideways with a mild bullish bias, serving as a consolidation phase following the payroll-driven rally. A short-term uptrend channel has been established. The 4-hour moving averages present a bullish alignment, and a double-bottom support pattern has formed at the daily chart lows, putting short-term bulls in control. However, stacked overhead trapped sell orders will continuously cap upward gains. The primary key resistance stands at 4200, the core barrier for this rebound. Prices are highly likely to stall and retrace after surging to this level on Monday. If bullish strength exceeds expectations and holds firmly above 4200, the next resistance zone ranges from 4250 to 4275. The major downside support is 4100, the starting level of the payroll-fueled rally. The short-term bullish logic remains valid unless this level is decisively broken on Monday. The secondary pullback support sits at 4070, the primary zone for intraday dip buying. 🎯 I share trading strategies every day