Bitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete.Bitcoin/USDCAPITALCOM:BTCUSDMehdi_Abbasi_EWPBitcoin 4H | Is the First Bearish Leg Complete, or Is Wave C Just Getting Started? Financial markets reward discipline, not certainty. This analysis focuses on the internal structure of Bitcoin's recent decline using the Elliott Wave Principle. As in my Daily analysis, both the Conservative and Aggressive scenarios remain valid, and neither has been invalidated according to Elliott Wave rules and guidelines. The recent decline is currently counted as a Double Zigzag (W-X-Y) in both scenarios. The difference lies in what follows next. Conservative Scenario In the Conservative view, the Double Zigzag may have completed a larger corrective structure. If buyers continue to build momentum from this area and the market develops a clear five-wave impulsive advance, the current move could become Wave (1), followed by a Wave (2) correction before the larger uptrend resumes. Under this scenario, any pullback following the initial advance would be considered a normal correction within a developing bullish trend, provided the impulsive structure remains intact. Aggressive Scenario The Aggressive scenario interprets the recent Double Zigzag as only the first leg of a much larger bearish correction. If this count is correct, the current recovery should remain corrective rather than impulsive. It may develop into a simple Zigzag or another corrective pattern, potentially retracing 38.2%, 50%, or even 61.8% of the recent decline before sellers regain control. Once that corrective rally is complete, another bearish leg could begin, with the larger correction extending toward the $40,000–$30,000 region. An Important Alternative Count There is another possibility that deserves attention. The market may already be developing Waves 1 and 2 of Wave C, a lower-probability count that is illustrated on the chart with lighter labeling. If this interpretation proves correct, the current rebound would represent only a small Wave 2 correction before a strong Wave 3 decline unfolds. For that reason, I am paying much more attention to the structure of the current rally than to its size. A clear five-wave advance would strengthen the Conservative scenario. A corrective three-wave recovery, however, would continue to favor the Aggressive scenario and increase the probability of another decline. Final Thoughts At this stage, the market has not yet revealed its final direction. Price structure, wave relationships, channel behavior, Fibonacci proportions, and respect for invalidation levels will determine which scenario gains confirmation. Until the market confirms one path, both counts remain valid under Elliott Wave rules and guidelines. As always, I prefer to follow the evidence rather than predict the future. Facts always win. Patterns whisper. I listen. — Mr. Nobody 🎧📊