USD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade SetupUS Dollar vs. Japanese YenFX:USDJPYATFX_Global🌐Macro Background Fed Rate Expectations Soften: A softer-read US jobs report (NFP) has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may pull back on aggressive rate hikes, taking some steam out of the US Dollar's broad momentum. Intervention Risk Peaking: After skyrocketing to a fresh 40-year high near 162.80, USD/JPY suffered a violent flush downward. The swift reversal strongly suggests the market is pricing in a high risk of BoJ/Ministry of Finance intervention, keeping bulls cautious and downside risk elevated. 📊Technical Structure The pair remains broadly confined within a medium-term ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. However, yesterday's sharp liquidation saw price action pierce clean through the channel's midline before finding support. Key Resistance Zone: 161.19 – 161.58 Key Support Zone: 160.03 – 160.41 🎯 Trade Setup Given the conflicting forces of structural bullishness and intervention risk, favour a range-bound or pullback-buying strategy: Direction: Long on dips / Neutral-to-Bullish within the channel. Entry Zone: Look for stabilisation or bullish rejection candles near the lower channel boundary and Support Zone (160.03 – 160.41). Enter long only if this confirmation appears. Alternatively, a clean 4H close back above 161.58 confirms bulls have regained full control. 📌Invalidation A sustained 4-hour close below 160.00 breaks both the horizontal support zone and the lower trendline of the ascending channel, signalling a deeper downside risk and invalidating the long setup. 📌Trade Summary Cautiously look to buy dips toward the 160.03–160.41 support zone, but only after stabilisation or bullish rejection candles confirm the move. Invalidate on a sustained break below 160.00 amid high BoJ intervention risks. ⚠️Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.