USD/JPY Hit a 40-Year High, Then NFP Printed 57K. The 161.80 OBUSD/JPYOANDA:USDJPYBuddyKing1USDJPY printed a 40-year high of 162.84, then a historic NFP miss sent it crashing 220 pips, and the OB retest short hasn’t triggered yet. NFP came in at 57K vs 110K expected. Dollar sold off instantly. The yen jumped. But price is now bouncing back toward the exact zone where institutional supply sits, and that’s where the limit short belongs. 🔍 The Setup — Three Confluences • H4 Bearish OB at 161.78–162.22: Last strong bearish H4 candle before the ATH rollover. Unmitigated. Price hasn’t returned yet, this is the POI, not current price. • BoS confirmed at 161.40: After the NFP print, H4 structure shifted bearish. The OB retest is now a distribution retest, not continuation. • BoJ intervention + thin liquidity: JPY net shorts are at a 2-year high (-288K contracts), an overcrowded trade. Japan’s Finance Minister has issued live warnings. US markets are closed today. Thin holiday liquidity makes any intervention impact 2–3× larger. ⚙️ Trade Levels | |Level | |-------------|-----------------------------| | Entry |161.78 – 162.22 (limit short)| | Stop Loss 163.12 | | TP1 |160.00 — psych + BoS | | TP2 |158.50 — weekly demand | | RR |1:1.8 / 1:3.1 | | Risk |1% account | 📌 What I’m Watching • Weak low-volume grind back into 161.80–162.20 → limit entry triggered • H4 bearish wick or engulfing inside OB → add conviction • Actual BoJ intervention during thin session → TP2 accelerates • Invalidation: H4 close above 163.12, setup void Traders looking to short USDJPY CFDs with defined risk and tight spreads can execute this setup directly on Bitget’s cfd platform, limit orders, both directions, one account. BoJ fires today during thin liquidity, or does price retest the OB first? Drop your level