Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Beat the S&P 500 in the Second Half of 2026

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Skip to navigationSkip to main contentSkip to right columnADVERTISEMENTAnthony Di Pizio, The Motley FoolFri, July 3, 2026 at 8:20 AM GMT+2 5 min readThe S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is a diversified stock market index made up of 500 companies from 11 different economic sectors. But then there is the S&P 500 Growth index, which exclusively invests in the top 145 growth stocks from the regular S&P 500, while disregarding the other 355 stocks.Therefore, the Growth index has much larger positions in the trillion-dollar technology giants that typically lead the broader market higher, resulting in consistently better annual returns compared to the S&P 500. However, many of those stocks -- which I'll highlight shortly -- have actually underperformed the market so far this year.Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VOOG) tracks the S&P 500 Growth index. I think the sluggish performance in some of America's largest stocks will reverse in the second half of this year, so here's why I think the exchange-traded fund (ETF) will beat the benchmark index over the next six months.Image source: Getty Images.The S&P 500 Growth index chooses stocks based on their momentum and the sales growth of the underlying companies. As a result, it has relatively large positions in each of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks: Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.Those seven companies have a combined market capitalization of $21 trillion, representing 34.3% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization -- but a whopping 50.8% of the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF's market capitalization.StockVanguard ETF WeightingS&P 500 WeightingNvidia14.26%7.89%Alphabet11.04%6.12%Microsoft9.29%5.14%Apple6.37%7.05%Amazon3.89%4.07%Meta Platforms3.84%2.13%Tesla2.11%1.89%Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of May 31, 2026, and are subject to change.Except for Alphabet, each one of the Magnificent Seven stocks underperformed the S&P 500 in the first half of 2026. The worst performer -- Microsoft -- was down by a staggering 22.9%.GOOGL data by YChartsGiven its enormous exposure to those stocks, it's remarkable that the Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF is keeping pace with the S&P 500 at all this year. However, it also has larger positions in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure stocks like Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, Lam Research, and Applied Materials, each of which more than doubled in the first half of the year, helping them pick up some of the slack.Terms and Privacy PolicyEU DSA contactPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore Info