The Bitcoin Cycle Is Repeating, $280K NextBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDCryptoPAMM🚀 BITCOIN TO $280,000? My long-term chart is starting to point in that direction This may sound extremely bullish while Bitcoin is still trading around $80K, but when I zoom out to the monthly chart, the current structure becomes much more interesting. And my next major long-term target is now around $280,000. Let me explain where that number comes from, because I’m not simply taking the current price and multiplying it by three. 🕯 First — look at Bitcoin’s previous major corrections On the chart I marked the two previous large corrective phases. 2018: Bitcoin corrected roughly 84% and the main correction lasted around 12 monthly candles — approximately 365 days. 2022: Again, roughly 12 monthly candles / 365 days, this time with a drawdown of around 78%. Now look at the current cycle. From the ~$126K high to the ~$57.7K low, Bitcoin corrected approximately 61%. So the correction has actually been considerably smaller than in the previous two cycles, while the time structure is once again approaching that same one-year window. Obviously, markets don’t move according to a calendar. Twelve months is not some magic number. But when two previous major corrections lasted almost exactly one year and the current correction is now reaching a similar maturity window, I pay attention. For me, September–October becomes an important transition area. If Bitcoin continues holding the current monthly structure, there is a reasonable chance that we are looking at the final part of the correction rather than the beginning of another major bear market. ✔️ The monthly moving average is also important Another thing I like is where buyers appeared. Bitcoin dropped toward the major monthly EMA shown on the chart, found demand around that broader support area, and has now moved back above it. On a monthly chart, I care much less about what happens during one or two days. I want to know whether the long-term structure is still alive. For now, it is. The low around $57.7K is therefore extremely important for my scenario. If that low remains intact and Bitcoin continues building above the monthly support, I see the current move as accumulation/recovery inside a much larger bullish structure. 🎯 So where does $280K come from? This is probably the most interesting part. The important range on my chart runs from approximately: $57,718 ➡️ $126,296 If I project the 327.2% Fibonacci extension of that range, I get approximately: $282,106. That is why my long-term target is around $280K. It doesn’t mean Bitcoin goes there in a straight line. Before that, the market still needs to properly reclaim the $90K area, attack the old highs around $126K, and then turn that previous ATH into support. But if Bitcoin breaks into genuine price discovery again, $280K becomes a technically reasonable expansion target for me. 💵 And then we have the macro picture. This is where the idea gets even more interesting. The US national debt officially crossed $40 TRILLION in August. On August 18, total public debt stood at approximately $40.047 trillion, including around $32.3 trillion held by the public. And the problem isn’t only the headline number. The CBO expects the US government to run a roughly $1.9 trillion deficit in 2026, with debt held by the public at around 101% of GDP. Net federal interest expense alone is projected at roughly $1 trillion this year, and the CBO expects it to more than double to $2.1 trillion by 2036. Meanwhile, Treasury expects to borrow another $739 billion during July–September and another $628 billion during October–December. Think about what that means. The government has an enormous existing debt pile. It continues running large deficits. Old debt constantly has to be refinanced. And refinancing at higher interest rates makes servicing that debt increasingly expensive. That creates a long-term incentive for policymakers to avoid excessively tight financial conditions indefinitely. And this is where assets with genuinely limited supply become interesting. There will never be more than 21 million BTC. The supply of dollars and government debt, on the other hand, does not have that same hard limit. That doesn’t mean “US debt goes up = Bitcoin goes up tomorrow.” It means that over a long enough period, investors have a growing reason to own assets that cannot easily be diluted. Gold benefits from exactly the same logic. Bitcoin increasingly participates in what markets call the debasement trade — buying scarce assets when confidence in the long-term purchasing power of fiat money and government debt begins to weaken. CoinShares recently described the move from the low-$60Ks toward $80K as increasingly driven by fiscal concerns and this same debasement narrative. And we can already see institutional capital returning. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $731M of net inflows on September 3 and another $175M on September 4. Across the first four trading days of September, the net result was roughly +$770M. So there is actual spot demand behind part of this move. ⚠️ But there is one important risk to this scenario. I would not say the dollar is currently collapsing. The Fed’s broad real dollar index did fall from 115.24 in July to 113.64 in August, and it is around 1% lower year-on-year, so there is pressure — but this is still very different from a currency collapse. And the latest US employment report was much stronger than expected: 162K new jobs versus roughly 56K expected. That pushed expectations for another Fed rate hike sharply higher. Higher rates + stronger Treasury yields + a stronger dollar could temporarily pressure Bitcoin again. So I am not expecting: $80K ➡️ $280K in one vertical candle. 😄 There will be corrections. There will probably be some very uncomfortable ones. But when I combine: ✔️ the repeating 12-month corrective structure ✔️ a smaller drawdown than in the previous two major cycles ✔️ support around the major monthly moving average ✔️ the potential completion of the current corrective phase ✔️ renewed ETF demand ✔️ a US debt load already above $40 trillion ✔️ structurally huge government borrowing requirements ✔️ and a fixed Bitcoin supply …I think the probability is increasingly on the side of a much larger Bitcoin expansion ahead. And if Bitcoin eventually breaks the previous ATH and enters proper price discovery again, my major long-term technical target sits around: 🎯 $280,000–$282,000 BTC That is approximately the 327.2% Fibonacci extension shown on my chart. For now, I’m watching the monthly structure. As long as the major support holds, I think the really big part of this cycle may still be ahead of us.